Ethiopia–Eritrea Tensions Raise Risk of Regional War

Ethiopian drone strikes reportedly hit Eritrean troops and ammunition near Adigrat, a city in Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region, amid rising tensions between the neighboring countries and concern that their confrontation could widen into a regional war. Conflict monitor ACLED reported multiple strikes overnight from Wednesday to Thursday. Witnesses told AFP that Eritrean trucks and military vehicles had been struck, and one said Eritrean troops appeared to be retreating north. Neither government had responded to questions about the reported fighting. An Ethiopian army commander, speaking anonymously, characterized the remaining resistance as small pockets of enemy forces. The clashes follow a sharp deterioration in relations. Ethiopia accuses Eritrea of supporting rebels in Tigray, while Eritrea says Ethiopia backs its opponents and may be seeking an excuse to invade and gain direct access to the Red Sea. Eritrean Information Minister Yemane Meskel accused Ethiopia of supporting people seeking regime change in Eritrea. The countries severed diplomatic ties last week, following Ethiopia’s expulsion of 10 Eritrean diplomats and closure of its embassy in Asmara; Eritrea said it would sever all ties. The article places the dispute in a longer history: Eritrea became independent in 1993, leaving Ethiopia without a coastline, and the countries fought a border war from 1998 to 2000. Relations improved after Abiy Ahmed became Ethiopia’s prime minister in 2018, and Eritrean forces fought alongside Ethiopia in the 2020–2022 civil war against the Tigray People’s Liberation Front. Relations soured again over the peace agreement that ended that conflict and Ethiopia’s claims to sea access.

Ethiopian drone strikes reportedly hit Eritrean troops and ammunition near Adigrat, in northern Ethiopia’s Tigray region, overnight between Wednesday and Thursday. Conflict monitor ACLED and local witnesses said the strikes damaged Eritrean military vehicles, including lorries, and that troops appeared to be withdrawing north. The reported attack followed Eritrean forces crossing into Ethiopia and taking positions around Adigrat, according to multiple sources. Neither government had responded to questions about the fighting. The strikes come amid a renewed offensive by a seven-group rebel coalition led by the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). Fighting has also been reported in the Afar and Amhara regions. Ethiopia accuses Eritrea of supporting rebels, while Eritrea says Ethiopia is backing its opponents and seeking a pretext to invade and gain access to the Red Sea. The two neighbours severed diplomatic ties last week after Ethiopia expelled 10 Eritrean diplomats and closed its embassy in Asmara. The article describes how relations between the countries shifted from cooperation to renewed hostility. Eritrea became independent in 1993, leaving Ethiopia without direct access to the Red Sea. Relations improved after Abiy Ahmed became Ethiopia’s prime minister in 2018, and Eritrean forces later fought alongside Ethiopia against the TPLF during the 2020–2022 civil war. But disagreements over the peace agreement that ended that conflict, Ethiopia’s claims to sea access, and allegations of wartime abuses contributed to the deterioration. The latest escalation raises concerns that renewed fighting could widen into a regional war, particularly as Ethiopia also accuses Sudan and Egypt of supporting the TPLF-led alliance.

Ethiopian government forces have reportedly used drones against Eritrean troops who crossed into the Tigray region, escalating tensions between the neighbouring countries. Witnesses, a militia commander and the conflict-monitoring group Acled said Eritrean military vehicles entered Tigray on Wednesday and reached Adigrat, about 40km from the border. Acled reported that Ethiopian drones struck the troops later that evening and the following morning. Eritrea has not confirmed the deployment: its information minister dismissed reports as “wild allegations” without explicitly confirming or denying the presence of Eritrean forces. The incident comes amid renewed fighting in northern Ethiopia. The Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and six other armed groups have fought government forces across Tigray, Amhara and Afar. After government forces pushed back the TPLF, an allied militia, the Tigray Peace Force, took Mekelle on 4 October. The TPLF had launched its offensive on 23 September. The conflict risks compounding the effects of the 2020–22 civil war, in which British government estimates say 300,000 to 800,000 civilians died and all sides and their allies faced accusations of war crimes. Reports have also emerged that the TPLF is forcibly recruiting boys as young as 15. The article places the escalation in the context of deteriorating Ethiopia–Eritrea relations and Ethiopia’s stated desire for access to the Red Sea. Ethiopia’s foreign ministry says the country will defend its sovereignty and calls for dialogue, while insisting regional maritime discussions must account for its interests. Eritrea’s information minister accused Ethiopia of beating the “drums of war” and using self-defence claims to justify an aggressive agenda. A Crisis Group analyst warned that Abiy Ahmed might try to address Ethiopia’s internal conflict and seek access to a Red Sea port through simultaneous military action. The article cautions that renewed Ethiopian conflict could widen into a regional war, while civilians in the affected regions have only recently begun recovering from earlier violence.

Eritrean troops have crossed into Ethiopia’s Tigray region and reportedly came under attack from Ethiopian drones, raising fears that Ethiopia’s renewed internal conflict could escalate into a direct war between the two countries. Conflict monitor Acled said Eritrean forces entered near Zalambessa and moved south toward the road linking Adigrat and Idaga Hamus. Residents reported seeing Eritrean military vehicles in Adigrat, while Ethiopia’s government demanded that all foreign forces leave its territory. Eritrea did not deny the crossing, instead accusing Ethiopia of using a false self-defence narrative to justify aggression. The incursion follows the Ethiopian federal forces’ recapture of Mekelle from the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). Acled says Tigrayan forces remain present around Adigrat and Idaga Hamus, while TPLF leaders are based in rural central Tigray. Analyst Jalale Getachew Birru suspects Eritrea is supporting the Alliance for Survival, a coalition of seven armed groups formed to remove Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. He says Eritrea may be seeking to prevent Ethiopian forces from reaching its border and to keep fighting inside Tigray, potentially creating a hostile buffer zone. Eritrea’s hostility toward the TPLF is rooted partly in the 1998–2000 border war and its opposition to the 2022 Pretoria agreement, which ended the previous Tigray war. Diplomatic relations have also deteriorated: Ethiopia closed its embassy in Asmara and expelled 10 Eritrean diplomats, and Eritrea responded by cutting ties. The United States urged both sides to show restraint, warning that the region cannot withstand another war and humanitarian crisis. The article also highlights possible regional implications involving Egypt, which has strengthened ties with Eritrea amid its own disputes with Ethiopia over the Nile and the Red Sea. Although an Egyptian television host claimed the two countries have a joint defence agreement, no public text is available. The article concludes with uncertainty over whether Egypt would support Eritrea if it faced a major Ethiopian attack.