Merz Faces Mounting Pressure as AfD Surges

Eight German state premiers from Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) have publicly backed him as growing questions are raised about his future as chancellor and party leader. In a joint statement, the premiers said restoring trust in the CDU required listening to voters and taking political action, rather than debating personnel changes. They argued that Germany needs political stability and an effective federal government with a majority in the Bundestag. Merz has been chancellor for only 16 months, but poor approval ratings, an abrasive communication style and the rapid rise of the anti-immigration, far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) have weakened his position. A recent Bild poll found that only 14% of respondents believed he was suited to the job. The CDU’s particularly poor result in Saxony-Anhalt, where it fell to 17.2% while the AfD won 43.8%, intensified speculation about a possible “Kanzlertausch”, or “Chancellor swap”. The AfD came close to controlling the state but remains three seats short of a majority and is unlikely to find coalition partners. Merz has attacked the AfD as a “destructive force” and accused its migration policies of amounting to “ethnic cleansing” of skilled workers. The AfD has responded by filing a defamation complaint. Further state elections in Berlin and Mecklenburg-West Pomerania are viewed as important tests. Poor results could see the CDU lose power in Berlin or fail to enter Mecklenburg-West Pomerania’s parliament. Although no CDU figure has openly challenged Merz, potential successors—including Bavarian premier Markus Söder, North Rhine-Westphalia premier Hendrik Wüst and Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt—are being discussed. Merz has previously struggled to secure support within the CDU, but his success in establishing a €500bn defence and infrastructure fund and his emphasis on European security have earned him international praise. His long pursuit of the chancellorship may also make him reluctant to step aside.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is facing a serious political crisis as public support for his government declines and the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) makes electoral gains. The CDU recently suffered a major defeat in Saxony-Anhalt, where the AfD won the state election, and the party is polling at only 7% ahead of the upcoming vote in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. The CDU could even fail to clear the 5% threshold required to enter the state parliament, potentially producing its worst-ever result in a state election. The article examines several possible reasons for Merz’s unpopularity, including his abrasive communication style, perceived lack of empathy and failure to explain difficult policies such as pension reform. Education Minister Karin Prien acknowledged that many voters believe Merz and the CDU/CSU lack empathy. Merz’s criticism of support for a four-day workweek and work-life balance also angered trade unions, which interpreted his remarks as accusing Germans of being lazy. The CDU’s coalition partner, the Social Democratic Party, has warned that tensions inside the governing coalition are increasing. Although speculation about Merz’s future is growing, the CDU and its Bavarian sister party, the CSU, have no obvious replacement. Bavarian Premier Markus Söder is considered a possible successor but lacks broad support within the CDU, while North Rhine-Westphalia Premier Hendrik Wüst has shown little interest in moving to Berlin and plans to seek reelection. All eight CDU state premiers have publicly reaffirmed their support for Merz and called for unity and stability. Merz is not expected to resign voluntarily, but he may convene the CDU executive committee after the Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania election to ask whether the party still supports him. He has also canceled a planned trip to the United Nations General Assembly, signaling that he considers the domestic political situation urgent.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is facing a serious political crisis as public confidence in his government reaches a record low and his Christian Democratic Union (CDU) suffers major electoral setbacks. While attending the European Arctic Summit in Rovaniemi, Finland, Merz argued that Europe’s geopolitical and security challenges were more urgent than Germany’s domestic political disputes. However, political debate in Berlin is increasingly focused on whether he remains the right person to lead the country, less than a year and a half after taking office in May 2025. The CDU’s poor performance in Saxony-Anhalt, where the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) won, has intensified pressure on Merz. The CDU is polling at only 7% ahead of the September 20 election in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, raising the possibility that it could fail to clear the 5% threshold for entering the state parliament. This would likely represent the party’s worst result in a state election. Merz had promised to halve support for the AfD, but support for his own party has instead fallen sharply. Critics attribute the decline partly to Merz’s abrasive communication style and his failure to explain unpopular reforms, including proposed pension changes. His comments criticizing enthusiasm for a four-day workweek and work-life balance were interpreted by trade unions as accusing Germans of laziness. Education Minister Karin Prien said the CDU and its chancellor lacked empathy, while coalition partner Social Democratic Party official Dirk Wiese warned that nerves were fraying within the government. Although Markus Söder and Hendrik Wüst are viewed as possible successors, neither has broad or immediate support. All eight CDU state premiers publicly backed Merz and called for unity and stability. Merz is reportedly preparing to ask the CDU executive committee to reaffirm its confidence after the Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania election. His decision to cancel a planned trip to the United Nations General Assembly and remain in Berlin underscores the seriousness of the situation.

Germany’s Chancellor Friedrich Merz faces mounting pressure as voters in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Berlin prepare to go to the polls. The election in the northeastern state follows the far-right Alternative for Germany’s (AfD) first-ever victory in a German state election in Saxony-Anhalt on Sept. 6, raising concerns that the party could eventually win at the national level. The AfD is leading in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, with an INSA poll putting it at 37%, narrowly ahead of the Social Democrats (SPD) at 35%. The Left Party has 10%, the Greens 5%, and Merz’s Christian Democrats (CDU) just 7%. Although the AfD may finish first, Germany’s mainstream parties maintain a “firewall” against forming coalitions with it. The SPD, Left Party and Greens could potentially form a government, provided the Greens clear the 5% parliamentary threshold. The SPD’s prospects depend heavily on state premier Manuela Schwesig, whose approval rating exceeds 60%. Her popularity and ability to distance herself from Merz’s unpopular federal government may help the party resist the AfD. Merz’s national approval rating has fallen to as low as 14%, while dissatisfaction has grown over weak economic performance, rising living costs and stalled reforms. A recent poll found that 78% of Germans, including a majority of CDU supporters, no longer regard him as the right chancellor. The article also examines why the AfD is gaining support in eastern Germany. Voters are responding to its promises to restrict immigration and restore access to cheap Russian energy, amid labour shortages, high fuel prices and distrust of western-dominated political institutions. Despite economic improvements in shipbuilding and tourism, the region remains affected by years of sluggish growth. Another strong AfD performance could threaten Merz’s leadership, although party leaders currently continue to support him.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has cancelled his planned trip to New York for next week’s United Nations General Assembly, where he was expected to address world leaders. A government official, speaking anonymously because the trip had not been formally announced, said Merz’s presence was required in Berlin, but gave no further explanation. The decision comes as the chancellor faces increasing political pressure at home amid a series of difficult state elections. Speculation about Merz’s political future intensified after his centre-right party suffered a significant defeat against the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) in an election held on September 6 in Saxony-Anhalt, an eastern German region. The result has further weakened the authority of the already unpopular chancellor, who is attempting to advance reforms aimed at reviving Germany’s sluggish economy. The article does not establish whether the cancellation is directly linked to an imminent political crisis or to specific negotiations in Berlin. However, Merz’s decision to remain in the capital highlights the domestic challenges confronting his government and the importance of upcoming regional votes. The AfD’s gains have increased pressure on the governing centre-right and raised questions about Merz’s ability to maintain authority and implement his economic agenda. His absence from the UN General Assembly also signals that domestic political concerns currently take precedence over his planned international engagement.