23-09-2026
A report from the University of Chicago’s Climate Impact Lab estimates that excessive heat could cause about 451,000 additional deaths during the first nine months of the current El Niño, compared with a typical year. Researchers say the projection is in addition to other expected effects of hotter temperatures and shifting rainfall, including droughts, wildfires and flooding. The report’s map forecasts the heaviest impacts in countries across the Global South. Nigeria, Sudan, Niger and Chad could see more than 65,000 heat-related deaths combined; the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand, Cambodia and Indonesia could see nearly 40,000 collectively. Brazil and India are also identified as facing high death tolls. El Niño is a climate pattern involving above-average ocean temperatures in part of the equatorial Pacific that can influence weather around the world. Its effects vary by region, but intense heat, drought and flooding can worsen during a particularly strong event. Meteorologists have warned that this El Niño could become the strongest on record. The World Meteorological Organization expects it to reach peak intensity closer to the end of 2026, while the U.S. Climate Prediction Center expects it to persist through Northern Hemisphere winter and possibly into spring. Climate Impact Lab cofounder Michael Greenstone said the projections can help decisionmakers target emergency measures and help humanitarian organizations allocate resources. Suggested measures include heat warnings, outreach to vulnerable people, cooling centers, hydration stations, worker protections and greater health-system capacity.
Entities: University of Chicago Climate Impact Lab, El Niño, Michael Greenstone, World Meteorological Organization, Climate Prediction Center • Tone: urgent • Sentiment: negative • Intent: inform
23-09-2026
The France 24 report describes a forecast of potentially severe health consequences from extreme heat associated with this year’s “super El Niño.” Researchers at the University of Chicago’s Climate Impact Lab estimate that the heat could lead to as many as 451,000 excess deaths worldwide during the six months through February 2027. The report also says the number of extremely hot days is expected to increase by 44% during the period covered by the forecast.
Nigeria, Indonesia and Sudan are identified as among the countries likely to be most affected. The researchers caution that the consequences may not end when the six-month study period does: the impact could extend beyond February 2027. The report features further explanation from Chloe Brimicombe, a climate scientist at the University of Oxford, about the climate phenomenon.
The article presents a high-end estimate and a projected rise in hot days, rather than reporting deaths that have already occurred. It does not provide further details in the supplied text about the estimation method, the likelihood of the maximum figure, or specific measures to reduce the risks. Its central message is a warning about the possible scale and duration of heat-related mortality linked to the super El Niño, with particular concern for countries expected to face the greatest impacts.
Entities: Super El Niño, Extreme heat, Excess deaths, University of Chicago, Climate Impact Lab • Tone: urgent • Sentiment: negative • Intent: warn
23-09-2026
A powerful El Niño weather pattern could contribute to an estimated 451,000 additional heat-related deaths worldwide between June 2026 and February 2027, according to projections published by the University of Chicago’s Climate Impact Lab. Declared in June and expected to peak later in 2026, the phenomenon could be the strongest on record and is amplifying human-induced climate change, the article reports.
The projected burden falls hardest on developing countries. The Sahel region in Africa could see 66,800 more heat deaths than in a normal year, with nearly half of those deaths in Nigeria. The projections also include 19,300 additional deaths in Indonesia; 19,400 across the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia; 15,800 in India; and 13,300 in Brazil.
Researchers estimate that global land temperatures will be 1.2 degrees Celsius above normal in the coming months, with 44 per cent more extremely hot days than in a regular year. To estimate the toll, the Climate Impact Lab drew on research about temperature and excess mortality across 24,378 regions, accounting for local climate and vulnerability. It combined those findings with long-range temperature forecasts and compared the results with the 1996–2025 average. The researchers say their method will appear in an upcoming peer-reviewed journal.
The projections follow a United Nations warning that El Niño poses a significant threat to global health. The Climate Impact Lab says the estimates could help governments and humanitarian organisations direct preventive measures, including heat warnings, cooling centres and hydration stations. Co-founder Michael Greenstone said the report can help decision-makers identify where immediate emergency action could save tens of thousands of lives.
Entities: El Niño, Climate Impact Lab, University of Chicago, Michael Greenstone, United Nations • Tone: analytical • Sentiment: negative • Intent: inform
