NATO’s Eastern Flank Braces for Russian Threats

Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre says the possibility of a Russian incursion or other hostile action against NATO countries is a real and evolving security concern, although he insists that Norway is “prepared, but not afraid.” In an interview with CBC’s Power & Politics, Støre said NATO intelligence services are tracking the threat and that it should be monitored particularly carefully by countries near Russia, including Canada. His comments followed a warning from Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk that Russia may be planning hybrid attacks against NATO territory. Støre argued that European and Arctic countries must strengthen cooperation and welcomed Canada’s move toward membership in the U.K.-led Joint Expeditionary Force, which is designed to respond quickly to crises. He said the group should expand cooperation with countries such as Poland, Germany, Belgium and Canada, all of which face shared security risks. Støre also discussed the limits of NATO’s Article 5 collective-defence provision. He said the Joint Expeditionary Force could be useful in situations that are too serious for one country to handle alone but do not clearly meet the threshold for invoking Article 5. He pointed to recent incidents in Europe, including a drone attack in Germany and an investigated fire at a Bulgarian munitions facility, as events that have increased concern among NATO partners. The Norwegian leader emphasized Canada’s importance as an Arctic and North Atlantic partner. Canada and Norway share a coastline with Russia and recently signed a strategic partnership focused on broader cooperation, especially in the Arctic. Støre highlighted submarine interoperability, coast guard coordination, surveillance capabilities and Arctic research. He also supported closer Canada-Europe cooperation on space, critical minerals, energy and artificial intelligence, while welcoming deeper ties between Canada, Norway, the United Kingdom and the European Union.

France 24’s Truth or Fake report examines online claims that a viral NATO video is “war propaganda” intended to prepare the public for an imminent conflict with Russia. The article says the video is being circulated by pro-Kremlin accounts as promotional material for a future war, with some posts attracting hundreds of thousands or even millions of views. The Russian embassy in the Netherlands shared it, accusing NATO of encouraging young people to die for “the elites.” In the United States, conspiracy theorist Alex Jones amplified the video and made claims about its depiction of diversity. The report establishes that the footage is not new and was not made to promote an impending war. NATO published it on its official social media accounts in July 2024 to mark the Alliance’s 75th anniversary, ahead of a Washington summit. The video’s original context was removed when it was downloaded and recirculated online, leading to the misleading interpretation. The article distinguishes this false framing from real concerns about worsening tensions. European leaders have warned about Russian hybrid threats and possible efforts to test NATO’s commitment to Ukraine. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said intelligence indicated Russia might be planning drone and missile strikes against Poland and other countries on NATO’s eastern flank. French President Emmanuel Macron warned of intensifying hybrid attacks and ordered plans to protect critical infrastructure; he also referred to a drone incident at Leipzig airport that German officials attributed to Russia. The article additionally notes reports of a Russian drone entering Lithuanian airspace and a Russian warship allegedly firing flares at a Danish military helicopter. The central finding is that the viral video is being misrepresented, even as separate security concerns between Russia and NATO countries persist.

Polish Deputy Prime Minister Radosław Sikorski warned that Poland faces a serious and potentially existential threat from Russia as Russian drone incursions, cyberattacks, and other forms of hybrid warfare increase. Speaking to The New York Post in New York during the UN General Assembly, Sikorski said Poland is under near-daily air-raid warnings and argued that Vladimir Putin appears intent on widening the war in Ukraine. He invoked the historical danger Poland has faced when Russia conquered Ukraine and said neighboring countries do not control whether Russia escalates. Sikorski said Poland is seeking a permanent US military base, potentially hosting as many as 15,000 troops. He argued that stationing US forces on NATO’s eastern flank would deter Russia while offering the United States lower costs and useful training grounds. Poland has offered to build the base and says it pays $15,000 annually for each US soldier. Sikorski acknowledged the proposal comes as President Trump seeks to reduce US troop presence in Europe, but maintained that the eastern flank should receive priority because it faces the threat. The article also notes Poland’s comparatively strong public support for the United States, citing a poll in which 24% of Poles described the US as a close ally—more than twice the share in Germany, France, or Italy. Sikorski said he would nominate Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize if he secured a fair and honorable peace for Ukraine, while emphasizing that Ukraine should decide what such a settlement entails. He described Poland’s immediate NATO responsibility as protecting its own border with Russia. On possible troop deployments in Ukraine, he said Britain, France, and Germany would be better suited to that role for now, while Poland would help sustain logistical operations and continue policing its border from the air.

Lithuanian Prime Minister Mindaugas Sinkevičius told the BBC that Lithuania has prepared evacuation plans for a range of possible scenarios amid growing security threats from Russia and Belarus. He said Lithuanians feel “constantly threatened,” partly because of repeated drone incursions and other incidents affecting the country’s airspace and infrastructure. However, Sinkevičius emphasized that Lithuania would resist an attack rather than surrender, saying the country would “fight back” and “engage.” The evacuation planning includes measures such as moving elderly residents out of cities efficiently while avoiding traffic congestion. Sinkevičius said many scenarios were not being discussed publicly, but stressed that Lithuania faced concrete threats even if they did not occur every day. He also argued that the UK needed to change its approach to defence, while acknowledging that Lithuania was more exposed because of its proximity to Russia and Belarus. The report describes several recent incidents. Nato fighter pilots shot down a drone that entered Lithuanian airspace, while flights at Vilnius airport were disrupted by objects believed by authorities to resemble balloons. Lithuania has attributed numerous incidents over the past year to “hybrid attacks” linked to Belarus, a close Russian ally. The origins of the drone that was shot down remain unconfirmed, although Lithuania’s defence minister said it came from the direction of Belarus. Nato has thousands of troops in Lithuania, and Germany has pledged to establish a permanent 5,000-strong brigade there. The force is expected to reach full operational capability by the end of 2027, although Germany is struggling to recruit enough personnel. The deployment is strategically important because of the Suwałki Gap, which connects Belarus and Russia’s Kaliningrad region. The article also places the incidents within the broader increase in drone incursions across Europe since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia rely on Nato’s Article 5 collective-defence guarantee.