Tigray Offensive Raises Fears of Regional War

After nearly two weeks of renewed fighting, Ethiopian federal forces and allied fighters retook Mekelle, forcing an alliance that includes the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) to withdraw. The advance has effectively ended the fragile peace established by the 2022 Pretoria ceasefire, but the article cautions that capturing the regional capital may end conventional battles without ending the conflict. Rebel forces say they will continue fighting, and Tigray’s mountainous terrain could support a prolonged insurgency. Ethiopia is also confronting armed insurgencies in Amhara and Oromia, potentially stretching its forces across several fronts. The fighting has intensified regional tensions, especially between Ethiopia and Eritrea. Ethiopia’s pursuit of access to the Red Sea—particularly amid its dependence on Djibouti and interest in the port of Assab—is viewed by Eritrea as a security threat. Reports that Eritrean troops crossed into northern Tigray have raised the possibility that the conflict could draw the two countries into direct confrontation, though Eritrea has not confirmed the reported movements and denies supporting the opposition alliance. Egypt, Eritrea, Sudan and Somalia have increasingly shared concerns about Ethiopia’s regional ambitions and met in October to discuss cooperation. The article stresses, however, that this is not a formal military alliance and that the countries’ interests differ. Their concerns span the Red Sea, the Nile and the wider Horn of Africa. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam dispute remains important to Egypt, while Sudan’s war and accusations of outside support add further complexity. The article describes a regional contest in which the outcome in Tigray could affect Ethiopia’s military freedom of action and the calculations of its neighbours, but the supplied text ends before explaining whether those countries will intervene.

Ethiopia has accused Eritrea of launching an “all-out invasion” of the northern Tigray region and says it will defend itself. The accusation follows reports from residents that Eritrean troops crossed into Ethiopia, and reports of Ethiopian drone strikes against Eritrean forces near Adigrat. Ethiopia’s foreign minister, Gedion Timothewos, told the UN Security Council that Eritrean forces had advanced as far as 60km into Tigray and described their actions as aggression that gives Ethiopia a right to self-defence. Eritrea rejects Ethiopia’s account. Information Minister Yemane Gebremeskel said Eritrea was facing an unprovoked war and accused Ethiopian leaders of seeking a pretext to seize Eritrean territory. He also alleged that Ethiopia was supporting groups seeking regime change in Eritrea. The renewed fighting comes two weeks after conflict broke out between Ethiopia’s government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), which controls Tigray. Both sides accuse each other of violating the 2022 agreement that ended the two-year civil war. Ethiopia says Eritrea is backing the TPLF; Eritrea denies this. Eritrea had previously fought alongside Ethiopia’s government against the TPLF, but relations between the neighbouring countries have deteriorated. Disputes include Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s ambition to gain access to an Eritrean Red Sea port, and the countries severed diplomatic ties last week. A US-based conflict monitor reported that Eritrean troops and ammunition in Adigrat were hit by multiple drone strikes. Witnesses described numerous strikes and damage to Eritrean lorries, while another said Eritrean forces appeared to be moving north afterward. The escalation has raised fears of a wider regional war. The latest unrest follows months of tension and the formation in September of a new alliance of armed groups, including the TPLF. TPLF forces withdrew from Mekelle, Tigray’s main city, last week; Ethiopian army forces now control it.

Ethiopia and Eritrea have accused one another of launching a “war of aggression,” raising fears that fighting inside Ethiopia’s Tigray region could expand into a regional conflict. The accusations came days after the neighboring countries severed diplomatic relations. Ethiopia says Eritrea is supporting the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), whose forces launched attacks against Ethiopian federal troops last month. A foreign security source estimated that between 5,000 and 8,000 Eritrean soldiers were in Tigray. Ethiopian Foreign Minister Gedion Timothewos described Eritrea’s alleged actions as aggression and said Ethiopia had an inherent right to self-defence. Eritrean Information Minister Yemane Gebremeskel countered that Ethiopia had started an unprovoked war. Ethiopian forces have advanced against the TPLF, taking control of Tigray’s capital, Mekelle, and, according to witnesses, the cities of Shire and Adigrat. Flights to Mekelle are expected to resume on October 11. Ethiopian drone strikes have reportedly targeted Eritrean forces, and TPLF fighters are retreating toward Sheraro, near the Eritrean border. An aid worker reported deaths and injuries in Shire amid gunfire linked to looting after TPLF fighters and local administrators departed. A regional specialist said the TPLF was weakening, with low morale and defections, but warned that Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed might not stop at the border. The dispute is compounded by Ethiopia’s repeated calls for direct access to the sea. Eritrea views those demands as a possible threat to its port at Assab and has portrayed them as evidence of Ethiopian invasion plans. The countries’ relationship has shifted sharply over time: Eritrea became independent in 1993, the two fought a brutal border war from 1998 to 2000, and relations improved after Abiy came to power in 2018. Eritrea later fought alongside Ethiopia during the 2020–2022 civil war against the TPLF. Relations soured again after that war ended, amid Eritrean dissatisfaction with its conclusion and fears of an Ethiopian invasion.

The article examines why renewed peace talks over the fighting in Ethiopia’s Tigray region may fail to make progress. As clashes intensify, the central obstacle identified by analysts is not simply a lack of diplomatic initiatives, but the belief among the warring parties that they can still achieve their objectives through military means. Dr Jalale Getachew Birru, an East Africa regional expert at ACLED, says that belief makes an immediate negotiating breakthrough difficult. If either side expects continued fighting to improve its position, calls for restraint may not be enough to bring it to the table. The article also questions the durability of the November 2022 Pretoria agreement, which ended the previous war between Ethiopia’s federal government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). Renewed fighting, the article argues, has exposed the fragility of the settlement. Birru says important political issues remained unresolved and that implementation did not address the tensions underlying the conflict. Mulat Haregot, representing the Community of Tigrayans UK, emphasizes the human consequences and the gap between the agreement’s commitments and conditions on the ground. He cites continuing civilian displacement and the failure to achieve the normalization envisioned in the deal. In his view, a settlement should be assessed not only by whether fighting stops, but also by whether people can return home and rebuild their lives. The article concludes by posing a question for future initiatives: whether a new agreement would change the incentives driving the conflict or merely produce another temporary pause in the fighting.