US-Iran Deadlock Raises Risk of Renewed War

Former U.S. Defense Secretary Mark Esper warned that the U.S.-Iran war may continue for years, potentially lasting into 2027 or being passed to the next U.S. administration in 2029. Speaking at the GZERO Summit in London and later to CNBC, Esper said he sees no end to the conflict in the foreseeable future. He described a likely pattern of continued U.S. blockade and occasional escalations, while noting that a negotiated settlement would need to restore the Strait of Hormuz to its previous status and be judged better than the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, the JCPOA. He said reaching such an agreement would be difficult for President Donald Trump, who has expressed reluctance to make a deal with Tehran. Reports cited in the article say U.S. officials are considering renewed large-scale military operations.

President Donald Trump said he no longer wants a deal with Iran, even as reports indicate that his administration is considering renewed U.S. military operations. Speaking at a campaign rally in San Antonio, Trump said Iran was willing to offer “anything to stop,” while also praising U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff’s work on negotiations. NBC News reported that Trump and his national security team had discussed potentially resuming large-scale operations in the coming weeks. Axios reported that a renewed campaign could involve major strikes on Iranian energy, infrastructure, and nuclear targets, and that the conflict could affect the upcoming midterm elections. The prospect of escalation comes as Trump’s approval ratings have fallen to a record low, amid public concern about the cost of living and high gasoline and diesel prices. Earlier in the week, Trump said Washington’s main difficulty in negotiations was not knowing who was in charge in Iran. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei rejected that account, arguing instead that contradictory statements from U.S. officials were creating confusion. Oil markets remain a concern. Crude prices have stayed elevated even as regional exports have recovered to near prewar levels, according to Kpler. Combined crude flows from the Gulf, excluding Iran, along with exports from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, were around the pre-conflict level of 18.5 million barrels per day. Kpler freight analyst Matt Wright said shipping normalisation no longer depends on a diplomatic agreement, though he expects it to be slower and uneven if conflict continues. He said operational adaptation, rather than a diplomatic breakthrough, is enabling traffic to recover.

Asad Ullah argues that China should do more than issue general statements about the war and the Strait of Hormuz. Although two meetings between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping produced shared language opposing tolls on international waterways, they did not lead to an agreement or reopen the strait. The article describes a diplomatic impasse: Trump rejected an Iranian truce proposal and raised the possibility of renewed US bombing, while the summit readouts offered principles without a practical process for resolving the crisis. Ullah says China’s diplomacy has so far emphasized broad principles, including calls for restraint and reform of the region’s security architecture, but has offered too few concrete procedures. He agrees with Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s assessment that the architecture is imperfect and needs to be strengthened. The author does not argue that Beijing should replace Washington as the Gulf’s security guarantor. Instead, he urges China to use its distinctive access and relationships to help produce a more durable resolution. The article’s central criticism is that China’s diplomatic influence has not yet translated into practical results for the crisis.

US-Iran communication channels remain open, with Qatar, Pakistan and, at times, China passing messages between the two governments. However, the exchanges have not resolved the fundamental disagreements preventing a durable agreement to end the seven-month-old war. Iran is seeking firm, irreversible guarantees, while Washington has made demands—particularly on Iran’s nuclear programme—without offering assurances Tehran considers sufficient. Iranian sources say opposition to negotiations is also strong inside Iran, amid tensions among the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, diplomatic officials and Parliament. The renewed diplomatic activity follows the failure to make a breakthrough at the UN General Assembly in New York. Qatar and Pakistan, which previously helped broker a provisional truce in June, are still trying to bring the parties back to talks. Iran has proposed reopening the Strait of Hormuz within seven days and says it is reviewing Washington’s response. The strategic waterway is central to global energy shipping, and the war has disrupted energy markets and fuelled inflation. At the same time, both sides appear to be preparing for further fighting. Reports say the Trump administration is considering renewed strikes before the November 3 midterm elections, while the Pentagon has prepared for possible major combat operations and a third US aircraft carrier has been sent to the region. Iranian officials have warned of possible pre-emptive attacks and say the country has accumulated new missiles, drones and other weapons. US officials, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Vice President JD Vance, have pressed Iran to reduce uranium enrichment and said it has missed opportunities for a deal. The article portrays diplomacy as continuing but fragile, with military escalation increasingly plausible and no clear solution to the opposing demands.