Federal Forces Advance as Tigray Conflict Escalates

Ethiopia’s federal forces have reportedly retaken Alula Aba Nega Airport, the main airport serving Mekelle, as Tigrayan rebel fighters and leaders were seen leaving the city. Reuters cited a source familiar with events and a humanitarian source, while AFP cited a local journalist and residents. The journalist said federal troops had not yet been seen inside Mekelle. Residents expressed fears of looting, lawlessness, and personal danger in the absence of security forces. Al Jazeera said it could not independently verify the reports, noting that media access is heavily restricted and communications blackouts have occurred. The airport was one of three airfields seized by rebels when renewed fighting began on September 23. The Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) recently formed a seven-party coalition, which later launched an offensive around Tigray and fought near the borders with Amhara and Afar. The federal government is counterattacking along three routes toward Mekelle, according to the Critical Threats Project. Fighting has largely remained in Tigray, although rebels have reportedly launched drone attacks on Addis Ababa. Neither the TPLF nor the government had commented on the latest developments. The article describes drone attacks, intensified forced conscription, and attacks on civilian infrastructure, while noting that the renewed conflict has not yet reached the scale of the 2020–2022 Tigray war, which caused hundreds of thousands of deaths. It also highlights the risk of regional escalation: Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government has accused Eritrea, Sudan, and Egypt of supporting the opposition coalition; Sudan and Egypt deny involvement, and Eritrea has severed diplomatic ties with Ethiopia. Eritrea, in turn, denies involvement in the conflict and accuses Ethiopia of hostility and seeking Red Sea access. TPLF leader Debretsion Gebremichael described the war as regional and linked it to control of the Red Sea, while Ethiopia has said it does not seek conflict with Eritrea over coastal access.

Ethiopian government forces have retaken Alula Aba Nega Airport in Mekelle and made gains across Tigray after more than a week of fighting with the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and allied forces. The renewed clashes, which began on September 23, have effectively shattered the November 2022 Pretoria Agreement. Sources in Mekelle reported fighters leaving their posts, government offices and police stations without security, and concerns about looting and lawlessness. Federal-aligned forces had also taken several towns and were closing in on the regional capital. The fighting spans Tigray, Amhara and Afar. Alamata, a supply hub near Tigray’s southern border, has changed hands, while clashes in Afar could threaten supply routes from Djibouti, a major route for Ethiopian imports. Ethiopia has accused Eritrea of supporting armed groups opposed to its government; Eritrea denies involvement. Fighting has also been reported in North Wollo, and an explosion at Ethiopia’s Ministry of Defence in Addis Ababa raised concerns that the conflict could reach the capital. The humanitarian toll is severe: at least 52 civilians have been killed, and Doctors Without Borders has reported a surge in wounded people. Amnesty International cited credible reports of damage to civilian objects from shelling and air strikes, forced conscription and other possible violations of international law. It urged the African Union to convene an emergency session and activate its response mechanisms. Regional escalation is a major concern. Eritrea has severed diplomatic ties with Ethiopia, whose relations had already deteriorated amid mutual accusations and disputes. Analysts warn that Eritrea could become more directly involved in Tigray and that fighting could inflame tensions in Sudan. Wider instability around the Red Sea and Horn of Africa adds to fears that the conflict could affect neighbouring states and important trade routes.

Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) fighters and leaders were reportedly leaving Mekelle, the regional capital of Ethiopia's Tigray region, on Saturday as federal forces and pro-government militias advanced toward the city. A local journalist and residents told AFP that government offices and police stations had been left without security personnel, while federal forces had not yet been seen inside Mekelle. Residents voiced fears of looting, lawlessness, and danger to civilians. The advance follows fighting that began on September 23, when the TPLF launched attacks into the neighbouring states of Afar and Amhara. The renewed clashes have raised fears of a return to Ethiopia's devastating 2020–2022 civil war. After initial rebel gains, government forces pushed the TPLF back and began a counter-offensive into Tigray along three routes toward Mekelle, according to the Critical Threats Project, part of the American Enterprise Institute. A pro-government Tigrayan militia said it had taken control of Mekelle Alula Aba Nega Airport, about 10 kilometres from the city; a humanitarian source also told AFP that the TPLF had been pushed out of Afar. The fighting has heightened regional tensions. Ethiopia accused Eritrea and Egypt of supporting the rebels, expelled Eritrean diplomats, closed its embassy in Asmara, and expelled an Egyptian diplomat. Eritrea said it would sever diplomatic ties, while Egypt responded to the diplomatic expulsion with a reciprocal move. TPLF leader Debretsion Gebremichael described the conflict as a regional war over control of the Red Sea. The article also notes Eritrea's longstanding concern that landlocked Ethiopia intends to seize access to its coastline.