AfD Victory Deepens Germany’s Political and Social Tensions

The Alternative for Germany (AfD) won 43.8% of the vote in Saxony-Anhalt’s state election, causing nationwide concern and leaving many people of Turkish origin anxious about the consequences. Gökay Sofuoglu, co-chair of the Turkish Community in Germany, said some Turkish-origin business owners in the eastern state initially considered closing their businesses and leaving Saxony-Anhalt or Germany. Although many have decided to wait for the formation of a government, Sofuoglu described the AfD’s success as a broader threat to democratic stability, not merely an anti-immigration development. Sofuoglu also warned that the election result could encourage nationalist violence, including attacks resembling those carried out by the National Socialist Underground, a neo-Nazi terrorist organization responsible for a yearslong campaign of violence in Germany. Anti-AfD protests took place across the country following the election. Other interviewees emphasized the need to understand why the AfD has gained support. Alaz Sümer, a Berlin-based lawyer and researcher of extreme-right parties, argued that established parties had failed to address the social and political problems that enabled the AfD’s rise. He opposed banning the party, saying a ban could lead to the creation of another, potentially more radical organization and make Germany less hospitable to migrants. Instead, he urged mainstream parties to engage with AfD voters and recognize that racism and migrants’ difficulties are broader problems than the AfD alone. Irmak, a Turkish-origin resident of Leipzig, said the result was worrying but predictable. She attributed the AfD’s success partly to government policies that had not met citizens’ needs and argued that a change of government would not eliminate Germany’s structural need for workers and young people, particularly in an aging state such as Saxony-Anhalt. The state had about 2.1 million residents in 2025, including approximately 249,000 people with a migration background and 6,120 people of Turkish origin. Germany as a whole has roughly three million people of Turkish origin.

After winning a record 39 of 83 seats in Saxony-Anhalt’s state parliament, Germany’s far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is trying to find a governing partner. Its leader, 35-year-old Ulrich Siegmund, is holding discussions with the small far-left Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) and with individual members of other parties to determine whether a stable majority is possible. The AfD fell short of the absolute majority Siegmund had sought during the campaign, meaning it cannot govern alone and may face difficulties even if it secures support from another party. The BSW, which holds five seats, shares some of the AfD’s positions, including restricting immigration and restoring ties with Russia. However, it has so far rejected a formal coalition and is demanding that the state have an independent premier—an arrangement Siegmund does not accept. Germany’s mainstream parties have otherwise maintained a “firewall” against cooperation with the AfD, which the state’s domestic security agency classifies as extremist far-right. If talks with the BSW fail, the AfD could try to persuade some of the 15 Christian Democratic Union (CDU) legislators to defect and support it. The CDU is divided over the firewall policy, but no confirmed defections have emerged. Siegmund has also raised the possibility of a new election if no party is willing to take responsibility for forming a government. The negotiations highlight the difference between the AfD’s strong electoral performance and its limited ability to govern while isolated by other parties. They also carry national significance because the AfD is Germany’s most popular party nationally and is seeking a state-level foothold for policies including tougher immigration restrictions, renewed ties with Russia, reduced support for Ukraine and withdrawal from the euro.

Ulrich Siegmund, the likely future leader of Germany’s eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt and a senior figure in the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), said the party would not categorically oppose an arms manufacturer operating in the state. He linked possible weapons production to the AfD’s plans for large-scale deportation and “repatriation” campaigns, arguing that military equipment could provide resources for those efforts as well as for internal security and national defence. The comments could affect the future of a proposed defence-industry investment in Sangerhausen. German public broadcaster MDR reported that Israel’s Elbit Systems was discussing the construction of a plant there to manufacture components for other German defence companies. Local officials said the facility would not produce complete weapons systems, drones or artillery shells, but could create as many as 400 jobs. Elbit Systems Deutschland said it was continually assessing expansion opportunities in Germany, while stressing that no future locations had been selected. The AfD has campaigned against Germany’s increased defence spending under Chancellor Friedrich Merz and military aid for Ukraine, while advocating closer ties with Russia and presenting itself as a “party of peace.” The party won a historic election victory in Saxony-Anhalt, narrowly missing an outright majority, and has promised deportations “from the first minute,” citizen patrols and separate classrooms for refugee children. Siegmund said the AfD would examine what was produced at the Sangerhausen site and whether the project could draw the state into foreign conflicts. His position may complicate potential cooperation with the left-wing populist Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), the only party that has not ruled out working with the AfD. Although the BSW also opposes German military support for Ukraine, it has rejected the Sangerhausen project and its economic rationale for attracting foreign defence companies.