Tariff Turmoil Fuels Volatility and Recession Fears

BlackRock CEO Larry Fink told CNBC the U.S. is likely very close to, or already in, a recession, citing elevated uncertainty from new tariffs and weakening sentiment among consumers and business leaders. He noted some economic data remain resilient but may be temporarily buoyed by pre-tariff stocking. Fink emphasized this is not a financial crisis and said long-term trends like AI remain intact. His remarks followed mixed Q1 results for BlackRock: EPS beat expectations, revenue slightly missed, net inflows were $84 billion, and assets under management reached nearly $11.6 trillion.

Wedbush analyst Dan Ives says Apple is the U.S. tech company most exposed to President Trump’s heightened China tariffs, now at 145%, with China retaliating at 125%. Given roughly 90% of iPhones and large portions of Macs and iPads are made in China, he warns iPhone prices could exceed $2,000 if tariffs persist for weeks. Despite some diversification to Vietnam, India, and the U.S., Apple’s core supply chain remains in Asia. Apple shares have fallen over 14% in April, and experts deem U.S. iPhone production impractical, with Ives estimating a domestically made iPhone could cost about $3,500.

U.S. stocks rebounded Friday to cap an extraordinarily volatile week driven by trade policy swings. The S&P 500 rose 1.81%, the Dow 1.56%, and the Nasdaq 2.06%, boosted by White House comments that President Trump is optimistic about a China deal. Despite sharp declines Thursday, the week ended strong: S&P +5.7% (best since Nov 2023), Nasdaq +7.3% (best since Nov 2022), Dow +~5%. Volatility remained elevated, with the VIX easing from above 50 to ~37. Trade tensions dominated: the U.S. set a 10% universal tariff, 25% on certain metals/autos and some non-USMCA goods, and 145% on all Chinese imports; China retaliated with a 125% levy on U.S. goods. A 90-day pause on “reciprocal” tariffs eased markets midweek but prolonged uncertainty. The EU will send its trade representative to Washington to pursue deals. Economic signals were mixed: University of Michigan consumer sentiment missed expectations, with expected inflation at its highest since 1981. Boston Fed’s Susan Collins said markets are functioning well and the Fed stands ready to support if needed. Sector highlights: Apple +4% Friday; JPMorgan beat revenue estimates and warned of “considerable turbulence”; retailers face rising tariff pressure per JPMorgan; Morgan Stanley expects steel prices to ease as inventories are worked down. Despite the weekly rebound, major indexes remain notably lower since the April 2 tariff announcement.

U.S. stocks fell Friday as tariff tensions re-escalated, capping an exceptionally volatile week. The S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq slipped around 0.5%–0.6% after Thursday’s sharp sell-off erased part of Wednesday’s historic rally sparked by a 90-day tariff reprieve. The White House set a universal 10% tariff on most imports, 25% on select goods, and 145% on all Chinese imports; China retaliated by raising tariffs on U.S. goods to 125%, intensifying trade uncertainty. Despite the turbulence, major indexes remain on track for weekly gains (S&P ~3.3%, Nasdaq ~5%, Dow ~2.7%) but are still down more than 7% since April 2. Market volatility stayed elevated (VIX ~44). Financials led notable moves as JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, BlackRock, and Wells Fargo reported stronger-than-expected earnings, while a global shipping ETF (BOAT) notched its best week of 2025. Fed’s Neel Kashkari noted market stresses but no major dislocations yet. Investors remain wary of higher inflation, slower growth, and policy uncertainty.

U.S. tariff uncertainty and a sharp sell-off in tech stocks have stalled IPO plans for major unicorns like Klarna and StubHub, worsening an already tough environment for venture capital. With IPOs and M&A scarce, VCs face mounting pressure from limited partners to deliver exits, while later-stage startups risk down rounds and tighter fundraising as private valuations come under strain. Some see potential upside for Europe if talent and capital shift from the U.S., and expect M&A to provide alternative exits. Investors hope IPO activity revives later in Trump’s term, but confidence hinges on market stabilization and policy follow-through.

U.S. stocks saw extreme whipsaws, with the S&P 500 dropping 3.5%, the Dow falling over 1,000 points, and the Nasdaq down 4.3% after the White House clarified U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports effectively total 145%. The moves erased much of a nearly 10% surge the prior day, behavior traders say resembles bear markets where sharp up and down days cluster. Strategists advise fading extremes and caution against expecting a swift “V-shaped” bottom. Separately, Bank of America upgraded American Express, citing resilience among higher-income consumers.

After a week of market turmoil and pressure from Republican lawmakers and aides, President Trump paused his newly announced global 10% tariffs for 90 days to pursue negotiations—except for China, whose tariff he raised to 125%. The reversal, spurred by rising bond yields and fears of economic damage, lifted markets but exposed deep internal divisions between advisers like Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent (pushing negotiations) and trade hardliner Peter Navarro. Influential allies such as Larry Kudlow and GOP senators warned of risks to industries and consumers. Trump, who sees tariffs as leverage against unfair trade, shifted from a hardline rollout to a dealmaking posture, with Bessent emerging as the point man on trade.

The NYT’s April 11, 2025 news quiz covers major events of the week: President Trump paused most “reciprocal” tariffs except for China, where total U.S. tariffs reached 50%, sparking a 9.5% S&P 500 surge—its biggest one-day gain since 2020. Several IRS officials resigned after the agency said it would share data to build a free universal tax filing service. Trump ordered agencies to explore powering AI centers with nuclear fission. A nightclub roof collapse in the Dominican Republic killed at least 221 people. Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. urged states to ban fluoride in drinking water. NCAA basketball champions included UConn (men) and South Carolina (women). Alex Ovechkin surpassed Wayne Gretzky for the NHL career goals record. A PG-rated Minecraft film set a new opening box office record for video game adaptations. Scientists bred animals carrying genes from the extinct woolly mammoth.

US stocks rallied to end a volatile week after Donald Trump paused many tariffs: the Dow rose 600 points Friday and gained 6% for the week, the S&P 500 up 8.2%, and the Nasdaq up 11.6%. Despite the rally, economic warning signs persisted: the US dollar fell to a three-year low, Treasury yields climbed, and consumer inflation expectations hit a four-decade high. China retaliated with 125% tariffs on US goods after Trump’s 145% levy on Chinese imports. The White House insisted there is “great optimism” and called tariffs a “proven economic formula,” while operational glitches delayed tariff collection at US Customs. Some businesses began adding visible “tariff surcharges” to prices. The Boston Fed signaled readiness to act to stabilize markets if needed.