18-06-2025

Markets Rattle Amid Iran Tensions, Fed Watch

Date: 18-06-2025
Sources: cnbc.com: 4
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Image Prompt:

A dynamic financial news illustration showing a split-screen global market scene: on one side, glowing oil tankers and pipelines near a stylized Strait of Hormuz with rising oil price charts and energy stocks surging; on the other, a red-tinged Wall Street board with falling mega-cap tech symbols and heightened volatility. In the background, a calm Federal Reserve press podium with a dot-plot graphic and steady interest rate signal. Subtle references to mixed Asian markets and a Capitol dome with a digital coin icon to hint at progress on stablecoin legislation. Tense, dusk lighting, crisp infographic overlays, modern editorial style.

Summary

Escalating Israel-Iran tensions intensified after President Trump’s social posts rejecting a ceasefire and threatening Iran, prompting fears of potential U.S. strikes and disrupting market sentiment. Oil surged over 4% and energy shares outperformed as investors priced in risks to Middle East supply routes, especially the Strait of Hormuz, while broader U.S. equities fell and Asia traded mixed. Against this geopolitical backdrop, markets focused on the Federal Reserve’s decision and updated projections, with rates expected to hold and attention on the path to potential cuts. Additional crosscurrents included weaker U.S. retail data, Japan’s export slump, volatility in renewables tied to U.S. policy signals, and crypto legislation progress as the Senate advanced stablecoin rules under the GENIUS Act.

Key Points

  • Trump’s posts dim ceasefire hopes, raising risk of U.S.-Iran escalation.
  • Oil jumps and energy stocks lead as supply disruption fears rise.
  • Broader equities decline; mega-cap techs retreat while volatility increases.
  • Fed expected to hold rates; dot plot and Powell’s guidance in focus.
  • Senate passes GENIUS Act, advancing federal rules for stablecoins.

Articles in this Cluster

CNBC Daily Open: Israel-Iran ceasefire hope dims as Trump weighs strikes

CNBC’s Daily Open reports that hopes for an Israel-Iran ceasefire faded after President Trump’s social posts threatened Iran’s leader and signaled possible U.S. military strikes, which officials say are under consideration. Markets fell on the rhetoric and weak U.S. retail sales, while oil jumped over 4%. Asia traded mixed; Japan’s exports fell 1.7% in May, with an 11.1% drop to the U.S. OpenAI’s Sam Altman said Meta tried to poach staff with massive bonuses. The U.S. Senate passed the GENIUS Act, setting federal rules for dollar-pegged stablecoins. Investors expect global stocks to outperform over the next five years. The Fed is expected to hold rates but issue projections that could move markets, with a September cut seen as most likely.
Entities: Israel-Iran ceasefire, Donald Trump, U.S. military strikes, oil prices, U.S. retail salesTone: analyticalSentiment: negativeIntent: inform

CNBC Daily Open: Trump's posts crush hopes of an Israel-Iran ceasefire

Trump’s social media posts rejecting an Israel-Iran ceasefire and threatening Iran’s leadership rattled markets, lifting oil prices over 4% and pushing U.S. stocks lower, while Israel’s Tel Aviv 35 hit an intraday record. NBC News reports a U.S. strike on Iran is among options under consideration. The U.S. Senate passed the GENIUS Act, setting federal rules for dollar-pegged stablecoins with full reserves, audits, and AML compliance, broadening potential issuers. Energy CEOs warned that further attacks on Iranian infrastructure could disrupt global oil supply as ships avoid the Strait of Hormuz. Regencell, a revenue-less Hong Kong bioscience firm, surged to a $36 billion valuation after a 58,000% year-to-date jump. Investors increasingly favor global equities over U.S. assets for the next five years. The Fed is expected to hold rates but deliver projections that could move markets, with attention on the path for cuts and inflation.
Entities: Donald Trump, Israel-Iran ceasefire, Oil prices, U.S. stocks, GENIUS ActTone: urgentSentiment: negativeIntent: inform

Stock market today: Live updates

U.S. stock futures edged higher ahead of Wednesday’s Fed decision, with markets widely expecting rates to hold steady while focusing on Powell’s comments and the new dot plot. Tuesday’s session saw broad declines amid escalating Israel-Iran tensions and a spike of over 4% in oil; the Dow fell 0.70%, S&P 500 0.84%, and Nasdaq 0.91%. Energy was the only sector up (+1.03%), while health care led losses (-1.64%). Apple weighed on the S&P 500; Chevron was a top positive contributor. Investors are also watching data on housing starts, building permits, and weekly jobless claims. U.S. markets will be closed Thursday for Juneteenth.
Entities: Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, dot plot, S&P 500, NasdaqTone: analyticalSentiment: neutralIntent: inform

Wednesday’s big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market

Stocks fell ahead of the Fed’s 2 p.m. ET rate decision, with Treasury yields mixed (10-year ~4.39%, 2-year ~3.95%). Energy was the only S&P 500 sector up, driven by a sharp rise in oil and gas on fears Iran could disrupt the Strait of Hormuz; WTI and Brent are up ~15% in a week, gasoline and natural gas up ~10%. Natural gas names led (EQT +9.6% week), while traditional oil majors gained modestly but remain below recent highs. Renewables slumped sharply amid policy concerns tied to President Trump’s proposed energy bill: solar stocks and the TAN ETF saw steep declines (Sunrun -40%, SolarEdge -33%, Enphase -24%). High-yield bond ETFs show elevated yields (e.g., JNK ~6.6%, XCCC ~10.5%). The “Big Seven” mega-cap techs all fell, with Tesla and Apple notably off from recent highs, while Microsoft is near its peak. Markets will watch live Fed commentary and reaction on CNBC.
Entities: Federal Reserve, Strait of Hormuz, WTI crude, Brent crude, President TrumpTone: analyticalSentiment: neutralIntent: inform