Israel-Iran strikes reshape missile balance

A week of intense exchanges between Israel and Iran has seen Israel conduct daylight strikes over Tehran, claiming destruction of a third to nearly half of Iran’s ballistic missile launch capacity, key air defenses, and Quds Force infrastructure, while Iran’s retaliatory barrages have diminished in size and effect. Israel’s layered air and missile defenses—augmented by new naval systems and U.S. assets—intercepted the vast majority of incoming missiles and drones, though lethal strikes still caused civilian casualties in Israel. Analysts argue Iran retains a sizable but constrained long‑range missile inventory and may accelerate nuclear ambitions if pressured, yet regime collapse is unlikely; instead, a protracted contest over missiles, drones, and deterrence is emerging, with regional and U.S. involvement shaping escalation risks and the nuclear stakes.

Key Points

• Israel claims major degradation of Iran’s missile launchers, air defenses, and command nodes, enabling strikes over Tehran.
• Iran’s missile and drone barrages have shrunk and were mostly intercepted, yet some penetrations caused deadly civilian casualties in Israel.
• Israel’s multi-layered defenses—including Iron Dome, David’s Sling, Arrow, C-Dome, and new Barak Magen—proved effective with reported high interception rates.
• Analysts say Iran’s practical long-range missile capacity is limited relative to headlines, and early losses reduced usable stocks.
• Despite public discontent in Iran, experts see regime survival as likely, with potential acceleration of nuclear ambitions amid heightened deterrence pressures.