Ukraine Conflict Escalates, Refugee Crisis Deepens

The article discusses the rising anti-Ukrainian sentiment in Poland, where around 2.5 million Ukrainians have taken refuge since the start of the full-scale invasion in 2022. Ukrainians in Poland report experiencing abuse on public transport, bullying in schools, and xenophobic material online. The sentiment has been fueled by a polarizing presidential election campaign, with some candidates taking an anti-Ukrainian stance. Despite initial outpouring of compassion from Poles, public opinion has worsened, with a recent poll showing a decline in support for accepting Ukrainian refugees.

Russia and Ukraine are set to hold talks in Turkey, but Russian President Vladimir Putin is unlikely to attend. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has expressed commitment to the ceasefire talks, but the two sides are far apart on the agenda. The talks are seen as a milestone in the conflict, but are unlikely to yield immediate results. US President Donald Trump has been urging Zelensky to attend the talks and had considered attending himself, but has since ruled out traveling to Turkey.

A study by the Rand Corporation examines four scenarios for Russia's future military structure after the Ukraine war, with the 'Shoigu Plan' being the most likely. This plan involves increasing troop levels to 1.5 million by 2027, focusing on quantity over modernization. Experts question its feasibility due to limited armament capacities, personnel shortages, and technological deficits. NATO is urged to adapt its strategies and develop flexible measures to counter a potential arms race with Russia.