13-06-2025

Israel-Iran Escalation Jolts Global Markets

Date: 13-06-2025
Sources: cnbc.com: 10 | scmp.com: 2
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Source: scmp.com

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Summary

A sudden escalation between Israel and Iran—missile and drone exchanges and strikes on military and energy targets—triggered a broad flight to safety and disrupted global commerce. Oil prices spiked sharply on fears of supply disruptions and potential threats to the Strait of Hormuz, lifting energy and defense shares while pressuring airlines and travel on higher fuel costs and rerouted flights. Asian, European, and U.S. equities fell, bond yields eased, and gold rallied as investors assessed the risk of a wider regional war and suspended nuclear talks. Airlines halted or diverted routes across the Middle East, adding time and cost, while policymakers and analysts weighed scenarios from short-lived volatility to further escalation that could push oil above $100. Despite prior optimism from cooler U.S. inflation data, markets remain focused on geopolitical developments and their implications for energy security and risk assets.

Key Points

  • Israel targeted Iranian military and nuclear-linked sites; Iran launched drones and missiles, heightening war fears and halting nuclear talks.
  • Oil surged 6–13% on supply risks and potential Hormuz disruption, boosting energy and defense shares while pressuring airlines and travel.
  • Global equities slid across Asia, Europe, and the U.S.; safe havens like gold gained and bond yields dipped.
  • Airlines suspended or rerouted flights to Tel Aviv, Tehran, and surrounding airspace, issuing waivers and facing higher costs.
  • Analysts see elevated escalation risk but note historical precedent for oil spikes to fade if conflict remains contained.

Articles in this Cluster

Airlines divert, suspend flights after Israel attacks Iran

Airlines worldwide suspended or rerouted flights after Israel launched missile strikes on Iran and Iran sent drones toward Israel. Delta halted Tel Aviv service until at least September, weeks after resuming; United suspended Tel Aviv flights through July 31 and repatriated crews via El Al, which then suspended all flights amid Israel’s airspace closure. Turkish Airlines, Wizz Air, Lufthansa (pausing Tel Aviv and Tehran to July 31; Jordan and Lebanon until at least June 20), and Emirates (canceling routes to Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, Iran) also pulled back. Carriers are issuing waivers and vouchers, and many are skirting Middle East airspace, adding time and cost, reflecting broader conflict-driven disruptions to global aviation.
Entities: Israel, Iran, Tel Aviv, Delta Air Lines, United AirlinesTone: analyticalSentiment: negativeIntent: inform

Asia-Pacific markets live: Israel strikes Iran, oil jumps

Asia-Pacific markets fell after Israel launched airstrikes on Iran targeting its nuclear program, with Tehran vowing retaliation. Japan’s Nikkei, South Korea’s Kospi, Australia’s ASX 200, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng, China’s CSI 300, and India’s Sensex and Nifty all declined. Oil prices surged over 10% on supply risk fears, while safe-haven assets like gold rose and U.S. Treasury yields edged lower. Bitcoin and ether dropped. U.S. stock futures slipped, though U.S. markets had closed higher earlier on cooler inflation data and a tech-led rally. Tata Group shares fell following a deadly Air India crash. Officials said the U.S. was not involved in the strikes, and Israel declared a “special situation” anticipating Iranian missile and drone attacks. Analysts warned of heightened geopolitical risk but noted potential for de-escalation.
Entities: Israel, Iran, Asia-Pacific markets, oil prices, goldTone: analyticalSentiment: negativeIntent: inform

CNBC Daily Open: Middle East stares at a full-on war

Israel launched airstrikes in Iran targeting nuclear-related sites, prompting a state of emergency in Israel, reported fatalities in Tehran, and a more than 7% jump in oil prices; U.S. stock futures fell sharply. A London-bound Air India Boeing 787 crashed after takeoff from Ahmedabad, killing all but one onboard and causing additional ground casualties; Boeing shares fell 13%, with suppliers also down. Despite geopolitical shocks, U.S. stocks previously rose on a cooler May PPI (+0.1%), bringing the S&P 500 within 2% of its record; bond yields eased. Oracle shares jumped 13% on strong earnings and AI-driven cloud guidance. Europe slipped on tariff concerns. Separately, India’s manufacturing push faces infrastructure and regulatory hurdles, while China accelerates domestic AI chip efforts amid U.S. export curbs but still lags in key technologies.
Entities: Israel, Iran, Tehran, Oil prices, U.S. stock futuresTone: urgentSentiment: negativeIntent: inform

Europe markets live: Stock moves amid Middle East escalation

European stocks fell after Israel launched airstrikes on Iran, with the Stoxx 600 down ~1%, Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC 40 off ~1.1%, and the FTSE 100 down 0.5%. Oil prices surged (Brent +6%), lifting oil-linked stocks like Frontline, while most sectors declined, led by autos (~-2.2%) and travel/leisure (~-2.6%). Airlines slumped as jet fuel costs rose and routes were disrupted: Air France KLM, Wizz Air, IAG, Finnair, and Norse Atlantic dropped; many flights to Tel Aviv were suspended amid airspace closures. The dollar rose as a safe haven. The escalation included Israeli strikes killing senior Iranian military figures and Iran launching ~100 drones toward Israel, heightening geopolitical risk. Analysts warned higher oil will pressure airlines, and further U.S. involvement could hinge on any Iranian strikes on U.S. bases.
Entities: European stocks, Stoxx 600, DAX, CAC 40, FTSE 100Tone: analyticalSentiment: negativeIntent: inform

Israel Iran conflict: Tehran, Tel Aviv on high alert

Israel and Iran exchanged major strikes, escalating fears of a wider regional war. Israel expanded attacks to Iranian military targets and energy infrastructure, including a strike that partially halted output at the South Pars gas field. Iran launched hundreds of missiles and drones at Israel; Israel and U.S. forces, using Iron Dome, Patriot, and THAAD systems, intercepted many, though at least one fatality was reported in northern Israel. Israel warned Tehran of severe consequences if attacks continue, while Iran threatened potential action affecting the Strait of Hormuz. Nuclear talks between the U.S. and Iran were suspended amid the hostilities. Oil prices rose and U.S. markets fell on conflict concerns. President Trump urged Iran to accept a sharply reduced nuclear program to avoid further Israeli action, while emphasizing U.S. support assets were defensive.
Entities: Israel, Iran, South Pars gas field, Strait of Hormuz, Iron DomeTone: urgentSentiment: negativeIntent: inform

Israel-Iran strikes likely just the opening salvo as markets reel

Israel launched major overnight missile strikes across Iran, killing top military leaders and targeting nuclear sites; Iran responded by sending over 100 drones toward Israel, some intercepted over Jordan. Markets reacted with oil spiking up to 13% and Asian/European stocks falling as investors sought safe havens. Israeli PM Netanyahu vowed continued attacks “until the threat is removed,” while Iran’s Supreme Leader promised severe retaliation. The U.S. said it wasn’t involved, warned Iran not to target U.S. interests, and faces pressure as nuclear talks slated for Oman collapse. Analysts expect this to be an opening salvo in a rapid escalation cycle, with heightened risk to regional stability and energy supplies.
Entities: Israel, Iran, Benjamin Netanyahu, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, U.S.Tone: urgentSentiment: negativeIntent: inform

Israeli attack on Iran could send oil prices above $100 as tensions mount

Oil prices could surge above $100 a barrel if Israel attacks Iran, analysts warn, with a worst-case Middle East escalation potentially pushing Brent to $120–$130. Tensions rose as reports said Israel is ready to strike and the U.S. moved some personnel from regional posts, while nuclear talks with Iran are set to continue. Markets fear disruption of the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for about 20% of global oil flows. Brent and WTI briefly jumped ~5% on escalation fears, trading near $69 and $67.7 respectively. J.P. Morgan says current prices already include a geopolitical premium and assigns a small probability to severe supply shocks beyond a 2.1 mbd loss of Iranian exports. Some investors see tight physical markets and weaker U.S. shale output supporting $80–$85 oil even without conflict, though major banks’ base cases remain $50–$60 for 2025–2026 absent a military strike.
Entities: Israel, Iran, United States, Strait of Hormuz, Brent crudeTone: analyticalSentiment: neutralIntent: inform

Stock market falls after Israel attacks Iran: Live updatesStock Chart IconStock Chart IconStock Chart IconStock Chart IconStock Chart IconStock Chart Icon

U.S. stocks fell sharply Friday after Israel launched airstrikes on Iran and Iran retaliated with missile fire, spurring a flight to safety and a jump in energy prices. The Dow dropped 1.79%, the S&P 500 1.13%, and the Nasdaq 1.30%, with recent market leaders like Nvidia sliding while oil and defense shares rose (Exxon +2%, Lockheed and RTX +3%+). Brent and WTI crude surged over 7%, gold hit near two‑month highs, and travel and airline stocks sank on higher fuel costs and demand concerns. Payments stocks also fell on a report that Walmart and Amazon may launch U.S. stablecoins, potentially disrupting card fee revenues. For the week, the S&P 500 fell 0.4%, Nasdaq 0.6%, and Dow 1.3%. Separately, consumer sentiment jumped in June to 60.5, beating expectations. Citi downgraded Sherwin-Williams on housing softness, while Bank of America upgraded Whirlpool, citing reduced competitive pressures and resilience to tariffs.
Entities: Israel, Iran, U.S. stock market, Dow Jones, S&P 500Tone: urgentSentiment: negativeIntent: inform

Stock market futures fall after Israel attacks Iran: Live updatesStock Chart Icon

U.S. stock futures fell sharply after Israel launched an airstrike on Iran, prompting a special state of emergency declaration by Israel’s defense minister. Dow futures dropped about 1.4%, S&P 500 futures 1.6%, and Nasdaq 100 futures 1.7%, while Brent and WTI crude spiked roughly 7%. The pullback follows a Thursday session lifted by cooler-than-expected PPI and CPI data and easing bond yields, with major indexes still on track for weekly gains. Investor sentiment improved per AAII, energy led sector gains this week, and markets are watching U.S. tariff signals and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment report. U.S. officials said there was no U.S. involvement in the strike.
Entities: Israel, Iran, U.S. stock futures, Dow futures, S&P 500 futuresTone: urgentSentiment: negativeIntent: inform

Where oil prices may go next, based on past Middle East conflicts

TD Securities says the current oil price spike from Israel-Iran tensions could stall and reverse if the conflict stays contained. Historically, geopolitical oil shocks fade within a month and dissipate within six months, unless wars expand (especially involving the U.S.). In 14 past events since 1948, prices peaked in about 2.4 months with a 17% average rise, though post-1980 episodes show smaller gains. WTI is up 7% Friday and over 20% in June, partly on anticipation. The weekend’s developments—especially any damage to energy infrastructure—will be crucial. Most banks expect a limited, short-lived move, though Piper Sandler advises not fading the rally. OPEC’s response is another swing factor; members may be slow to offset potential Iranian export losses due to regional politics.
Entities: TD Securities, Israel-Iran tensions, Middle East conflicts, WTI crude oil, OPECTone: analyticalSentiment: neutralIntent: analyze

Gold 2.0 or just a fallacy? Crypto can’t chip away at gold’s safe-haven shield: researcher | South China Morning Post

A World Gold Council researcher argues cryptocurrencies, including bitcoin and stablecoins, are not substitutes for gold and don’t threaten its safe-haven role. John Reade notes crypto tends to correlate with equities, unlike gold’s hedging behavior during market stress. He dismisses “gold 2.0” claims, saying digital assets have fundamentally different characteristics. His remarks come amid rising interest in crypto and a renewed gold rally driven by Middle East tensions and a weaker US dollar, with spot gold briefly surging to US$3,444 after Israel’s strikes on Iran.
Entities: World Gold Council, John Reade, cryptocurrencies, bitcoin, stablecoinsTone: analyticalSentiment: neutralIntent: analyze

World Gold Council head researcher sees crypto as no alternative to gold | South China Morning Post

World Gold Council head of research John Reade says cryptocurrencies, including bitcoin and stablecoins, are not substitutes for gold and don’t threaten its safe-haven role. He argues crypto moves more like equities, while gold hedges market volatility, and rejects the “gold 2.0” label as a fallacy. Long-term demand for gold remains supported by concerns over US dollar assets, ongoing trade and geopolitical tensions, and tariff-related economic risks, amid renewed gold rallies driven by Middle East tensions and a weaker dollar.
Entities: World Gold Council, John Reade, cryptocurrencies, bitcoin, stablecoinsTone: analyticalSentiment: neutralIntent: inform