12-06-2025

Tentative US-China Trade Truce Signals Fragile Reset

Date: 12-06-2025
Sources: bbc.com: 1 | cbsnews.com: 1 | cnbc.com: 5 | edition.cnn.com: 1 | news.sky.com: 1 | nytimes.com: 2 | scmp.com: 2
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Source: edition.cnn.com

Image content: The image shows two suited men shaking hands in front of large Chinese and American flags. Overlaid text reads, “China’s ‘Trump’ card in the US trade war,” suggesting a news or commentary graphic about US–China trade relations.

Summary

A provisional US-China trade framework announced after London talks aims to stabilize ties by restoring critical flows while leaving most tariffs intact. The deal, pending approval by Presidents Trump and Xi, would see China resume exports of rare earths and magnets and the US ease certain export and visa restrictions, including access for Chinese students and specified tech components. Markets and analysts reacted cautiously, highlighting the framework’s narrow scope, lack of confirmed details from Beijing, and the persistence of elevated tariffs—around 55% on Chinese goods and 10% on US goods—amid broader strategic rivalry over technology and supply chains. The episode underscores China’s leverage in critical minerals, the US-led export control regime targeting advanced chips and lithography, and growing concerns that security-linked trade tools are becoming bargaining chips. Investor sentiment remains fragile, with tariffs cited as the top macro risk, while global markets reflect mixed reactions and allied economies like the UK experiencing tariff-driven trade strains. Meanwhile, China accelerates domestic chip and AI capacity and talent development to reduce reliance on US-allied tech ecosystems.

Key Points

  • Framework keeps most tariffs elevated while resuming select flows like rare earths and student visas
  • Beijing offers sparse confirmation, underscoring uncertainty on scope, implementation, and durability
  • China retains leverage in critical minerals; US maintains export controls on advanced chips and tools
  • Investors view tariffs as the top macro risk; markets react cautiously with mixed performance
  • China rapidly builds AI and semiconductor talent and partial supply chain alternatives amid curbs

Articles in this Cluster

US President Donald Trump says rare earths deal 'done' with ChinaBritish Broadcasting CorporationBritish Broadcasting Corporation

President Trump announced a provisional deal with China under which Beijing will supply US companies with rare earth metals and magnets, while the US will roll back threats to restrict visas for Chinese students. The agreement, reached after two days of talks in London and pending approval by Trump and China’s President Xi, is framed as an implementation of a prior Geneva truce that reduced but did not eliminate tariffs. US officials said some counter-measures would be removed, and tariff pauses may be extended to allow broader negotiations to continue. Markets showed little reaction, with analysts noting the deal’s limited scope and unfinished status, and broader US-China trade reconciliation remains uncertain.
Entities: Donald Trump, China, rare earth metals, magnets, visa restrictions for Chinese studentsTone: analyticalSentiment: neutralIntent: inform

Trump says U.S. trade deal with China is done, after tariff talks in London yield "framework deal" - CBS News

President Trump said a U.S.-China trade “framework deal” was reached in London and is “done” pending his and President Xi’s approval. The tentative terms reportedly keep China’s tariffs on U.S. goods at 10% and U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports at 55%, aiming to ease a renewed tariff escalation set for July 9. The framework follows a May Geneva pause on higher tariffs and seeks to reduce tensions, restore trade flows, and address critical supplies: China would resume rare earths and magnets to the U.S., while the U.S. would provide agreed aerospace parts, semiconductor programming technology, and allow Chinese students access to U.S. universities. China has not confirmed details, and state media only noted “new progress.” Economists warn failure could disrupt auto and aircraft production.
Entities: Donald Trump, Xi Jinping, United States, China, tariffsTone: analyticalSentiment: neutralIntent: inform

Asia-Pacific markets today live: Trump-China deal, Thailand CPIStock Chart Icon

Asia-Pacific markets were mixed as investors weighed President Trump’s claim of a “done” U.S.-China deal that would keep average tariffs on Chinese imports at about 55% and allow Chinese students in U.S. universities, with China supplying magnets and rare earths. Japan’s Nikkei fell while South Korea’s Kospi rose; Hong Kong’s Hang Seng declined and China’s CSI 300 was flat; Australia’s ASX was flat; India’s Nifty inched up. U.S. futures slipped after softer-than-expected May CPI. Analysts said higher-for-longer tariffs dampened risk sentiment. Japan’s business sentiment fell to a five-quarter low, complicating the case for BOJ rate hikes; most analysts expect the BOJ to hold rates next week. The U.S. dollar index fell to its weakest since April, with Asian currencies, including the yen and yuan, strengthening. Qantas shares jumped after announcing the closure of Jetstar Asia. Oil surged over 4% on rising Middle East tensions. A $39 billion 10-year Treasury auction drew solid demand.
Entities: U.S.-China deal, tariffs on Chinese imports, Japan’s Nikkei, Bank of Japan (BOJ), U.S. dollar indexTone: analyticalSentiment: neutralIntent: inform

China's racing to beat U.S. chip curbs. How its supply chain stacks up

U.S.-led export controls have pushed China to accelerate domestic AI chip capabilities but left major gaps across the supply chain. Design: Huawei’s HiSilicon has narrowed the gap with Nvidia’s China-legal GPUs; its Ascend 910C is reportedly about one generation behind, while startups like Biren and Enflame also vie to fill demand. Fabrication: With TSMC off-limits, Huawei relies on SMIC, which lags at 7nm and limited 5nm “workarounds,” facing low yields and constrained capacity versus TSMC. Equipment: The biggest bottleneck is ASML’s blocked EUV tools; SMIC uses older DUV systems with “brute force” techniques that don’t scale well. Domestic lithography efforts exist but are years away. Memory: China has made more progress here, but leading-edge HBM is dominated by SK Hynix, Samsung, and Micron, keeping a key dependency. Overall, China has advanced in design and some memory, but manufacturing scale, yields, and lithography remain critical hurdles to matching U.S.-allied capabilities.
Entities: Huawei, HiSilicon, Nvidia, SMIC, TSMCTone: analyticalSentiment: neutralIntent: analyze

European markets on June 12: Stoxx 600, FTSE, DAX, CAC 40

European markets were set to open lower on June 12 as global confidence in U.S.-China trade progress wavered. Asian markets were mixed and U.S. futures slipped after Donald Trump claimed a China deal was “done” with 55% U.S. tariffs versus 10% for China, a statement later tempered by Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, who said U.S. tariffs would remain at current levels. The deal still requires approval from Trump and China’s Xi Jinping. Investors were also watching the U.K.’s monthly GDP data and Tesco earnings, with European futures pointing to declines for the FTSE, DAX, CAC 40, and FTSE MIB.
Entities: Stoxx 600, FTSE, DAX, CAC 40, Donald TrumpTone: analyticalSentiment: neutralIntent: inform

Tariffs are the biggest macroeconomic concern for two in three investors, poll finds

A Schroders survey of nearly 1,000 institutional investors managing $67 trillion finds tariffs are the top macroeconomic worry for 63% of respondents—over six times more concerning than any other risk. Conducted in April–May before a tentative U.S.-China trade deal, the poll shows trade uncertainty is driving demand for stability and a shift toward active management: about 80% plan to increase active allocations to handle volatility amid structurally higher rates and high debt. Schroders’ CIO says resilience and active strategies are prioritized to navigate greater uncertainty.
Entities: Schroders, institutional investors, $67 trillion, tariffs, U.S.-China trade dealTone: analyticalSentiment: neutralIntent: inform

UK exports to the U.S. plunge by most on record as tariffs bite

U.K. goods exports to the U.S. fell by £2 billion in April—the biggest monthly drop on record—after new U.S. tariffs took effect, hitting British cars, chemicals, and metals. U.S. goods imports to the U.K. also dipped, putting the U.S. back in a goods trade surplus with Britain for the first time since May 2024. The U.K.’s overall trade deficit widened to £11.5 billion, and the economy unexpectedly contracted 0.3% in April amid a softening labor market. A proposed U.K.-U.S. trade deal would reduce some tariffs (notably on steel, aluminum, and a quota of cars) but still imposes 10% blanket duties on British goods for now, keeping trade uncertainty elevated.
Entities: United Kingdom, United States, tariffs, British car exports, chemicals and metalsTone: analyticalSentiment: negativeIntent: inform

Video: China’s ‘trump’ card in the US trade war | CNN

CNN reports that the US and China have agreed on a plan to implement a trade truce after negotiations in London. Phil Mattingly explains the factors that pushed both sides to compromise and outlines next steps for the relationship, suggesting China holds leverage—its “trump card”—in the talks. The piece is part of a video roundup covering global developments, but centers on how the truce could reset US-China economic ties and what each side seeks from the deal.
Entities: United States, China, trade truce, Phil Mattingly, CNNTone: analyticalSentiment: neutralIntent: inform

US-China trade talks: The fact neither side is saying much on the outcome says a lot | World News | Sky News

US-China trade talks in London yielded no clear breakthroughs, with both sides issuing vague statements—suggesting limited progress compared to the more optimistic Geneva round. The dispute has shifted from tariffs to a high-stakes supply chain confrontation. While the US restricts China’s access to advanced chips, China is tightening controls on rare earth exports, where it holds dominant supply power—putting significant pressure on Western industries. China projects confidence in developing homegrown tech, including chips and AI, reducing its reliance on the US. The US, however, remains heavily dependent on China for critical minerals, making a durable truce difficult amid deep mistrust and hardened negotiating positions.
Entities: United States, China, US-China trade talks, advanced semiconductors, rare earth mineralsTone: analyticalSentiment: negativeIntent: inform

How Washington Has Tried to Control China’s Tech - The New York Times

The article outlines how U.S. export controls have evolved to curb China’s technological progress, especially in semiconductors and AI. Under Trump’s first term, Washington used tariffs and targeted export bans against firms like ZTE and Huawei. Biden broadened the strategy, aiming to slow China’s overall advance in military-relevant tech by tightening chip export rules, leveraging U.S. tech content restrictions, and pressuring allies like the Netherlands to block sales of critical equipment from ASML. In Trump’s current term, the administration scrapped a late-Biden rule on sharing U.S.-made AI chips abroad (with a replacement pending) and tightened licensing on Nvidia’s China sales, causing a major inventory hit. Investigations are probing whether Nvidia’s chips reached Chinese AI firm DeepSeek. Despite ongoing talks with Beijing, the core U.S. export-control framework remains in place.
Entities: United States, China, semiconductors, AI chips, NvidiaTone: analyticalSentiment: neutralIntent: inform

New China Trade ‘Deal’ Takes U.S. Back to Where It Started - The New York Times

After months of escalating trade tensions, the U.S. and China reached a tentative truce in London that largely restores the status quo from before President Trump’s early April tariff hikes. Both sides will roll back recent punitive measures: China will ease curbs on critical minerals and magnets; the U.S. will relax new export limits and step back from visa threats against Chinese students. Tariffs remain unchanged, and broader issues are deferred. Analysts question the gains from Trump’s approach, noting U.S. countermeasures hurt domestic producers and risked military supply chains, while China showed resilience and leverage via rare earth controls. Experts warn the U.S. may have undermined its long-held stance that national security export controls are non-negotiable, setting a precedent that could complicate future talks. The durability of the deal remains uncertain.
Entities: United States, China, Donald Trump, rare earths/critical minerals, export controlsTone: analyticalSentiment: neutralIntent: inform

After heated London talks, where do China-US trade relations stand? | South China Morning Post

Following two days of London talks, President Trump claimed a broad US-China deal is “done,” covering rare earth shipments, student visas, and tariffs to sustain a fragile truce after Geneva. China offered few specifics, saying only that a report would be submitted for President Xi’s approval. While Washington projects consensus and concrete outcomes, Beijing’s reticence highlights lingering uncertainty over scope, implementation, and durability of any accord.
Entities: United States, China, Donald Trump, Xi Jinping, London talksTone: analyticalSentiment: neutralIntent: inform

China’s orchard of AI, chip grads now ripe for the pickin’ as tech trade sours | South China Morning Post

China’s trade tensions with the US since 2019 spurred a surge in domestic training for AI and semiconductor talent. Following a 2018 action plan, the Ministry of Education approved AI majors in 35 universities in 2019; now over 535 universities offer AI-related programs. With nearly half of the world’s top AI researchers reportedly from China, the country has built a large talent pool aligned with its goals to advance semiconductors and AI despite US curbs. Graduates like microelectronics student Jack Wang exemplify a cohort now entering the workforce to support China’s hi-tech ambitions.
Entities: China, United States, Ministry of Education (China), AI majors, semiconductorsTone: analyticalSentiment: neutralIntent: inform