Articles in this Cluster
09-07-2025
The US and EU are on the brink of a trade war as President Trump considers imposing tariffs of up to 50% on European goods. The EU is the US's largest trade partner, with $2 trillion in annual trade, and tariffs could hurt consumers on both sides. Trump has complained about the EU's trade surplus, but economists say the deficit is largely due to American demand for European goods. If tariffs are imposed, US consumers could face higher prices for goods such as French cheese, Italian leather goods, and German electronics. The EU is prepared to retaliate with tariffs on American products, including beef, auto parts, and Boeing airplanes. Economists warn that a trade war could hurt both economies, with the US potentially losing 0.7% of its GDP. A deal is possible, but the road to an agreement is expected to be rocky.
Entities: United States, European Union, Donald Trump, tariffs, trade war • Tone: analytical • Sentiment: negative • Intent: inform
09-07-2025
Asia-Pacific markets were mixed as investors reacted to U.S. President Donald Trump’s hardline tariff stance. He ruled out extending the Aug. 1 tariff deadline, announced a 50% tariff on copper imports, and threatened tariffs up to 200% on pharmaceutical exports with a 12–18 month lead time.
- Japan and South Korea closed higher: Nikkei +0.33%, Topix +0.41%; Kospi +0.6%, Kosdaq +0.78%. Top Nikkei gainers included Sumitomo Pharma, Omron, and Nissan Chemical.
- Australia fell: S&P/ASX 200 -0.61%, with gold miners sliding as spot gold hovered flat; Evolution Mining led declines.
- India opened lower; Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell, while China’s CSI 300 was choppy amid weak June PPI (-3.6% y/y) and mild CPI (+0.1% y/y).
- Copper prices slipped on the 50% U.S. tariff; Citi warned of a turning point, seeing ex-U.S. prices potentially dropping toward $8,800/ton in three months.
- South Korean defense stocks rallied after Trump urged Seoul to pay more for its own defense (SNT Dynamics, LIG Nex1 among leaders).
- Mizuho cautioned that deadline drama distracts from broader sectoral tariff risks and possible Chinese retaliation, with Asia—especially ASEAN—seen vulnerable.
- U.S. stock futures were little changed during Asian hours.
Entities: U.S. tariffs, Donald Trump, Asia-Pacific stock markets, copper prices, Mizuho • Tone: analytical • Sentiment: neutral • Intent: inform
09-07-2025
- Trump announced a 50% U.S. tariff on Brazilian imports starting Aug. 1, citing Brazil’s prosecution of ex-president Jair Bolsonaro and an “unfair” trade relationship.
- Brazil’s President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said Brazil will retaliate with reciprocal measures under a new law allowing proportional counteractions to unilateral economic moves.
- Lula rejected U.S. interference, noted U.S. data shows a U.S. goods trade surplus with Brazil ($7.4B in 2024), and criticized Trump’s deficit claim as false.
- The Brazilian real fell over 2% on the news.
- Trump’s letter also threatened an investigation into Brazil’s digital trade practices and mirrored similar tariff letters sent to 21 other countries, warning counter-tariffs would trigger matching U.S. hikes and hinting rates could be adjusted based on future relations.
Entities: United States, Brazil, Donald Trump, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, Jair Bolsonaro • Tone: analytical • Sentiment: negative • Intent: inform
09-07-2025
- President Trump announced tariffs: 50% on copper imports and up to 200% on pharmaceuticals, with unclear timing (pharma possibly within 18 months).
- Markets were muted: S&P 500 and Nasdaq ended flat; Dow fell 0.37%, implying investors may be discounting inflation and growth risks.
- White House economic adviser Stephen Miran downplayed the odds that tariffs will raise prices, likening it to rare events, drawing skepticism from market watchers.
- China’s June PPI fell 3.6% year over year (biggest drop in nearly two years), while CPI ticked up 0.1%.
- South Korea and Japan already saw Q1 GDP contractions and may face deeper declines amid new U.S. tariffs.
- Retail investors outperformed many fund managers post-“liberation day,” per Robinhood’s CEO, as simple strategies beat defensive rotations.
- Despite trade tensions, global stocks rallied: MSCI ACWI up ~10% YTD to a record, with some analysts citing the U.S.-led trade war as a driver of ex-U.S. outperformance.
Entities: Donald Trump, U.S. tariffs, pharmaceuticals, copper imports, Stephen Miran • Tone: analytical • Sentiment: neutral • Intent: inform
09-07-2025
The EU remains in limbo as it awaits clarity from Washington on a trade deal amid the lapse of a temporary reprieve from President Trump’s “reciprocal” tariffs. Trump has hinted a framework could be finalized within days and said letters setting new tariff rates have gone to multiple countries—though not the EU. U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said the EU has offered significant market openings for U.S. agriculture and fisheries, and that options are on the president’s desk. The EU is expected to accept a 10% baseline tariff, well below the 50% Trump previously floated, while seeking sector-specific exemptions. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen emphasized preparedness for all scenarios. Analysts note U.S. importers, not European exporters, would bear the cost of tariffs, potentially making EU goods relatively more attractive than higher-tariff alternatives.
Entities: European Union, United States, Donald Trump, Ursula von der Leyen, Howard Lutnick • Tone: analytical • Sentiment: neutral • Intent: inform
09-07-2025
European markets were set for a mixed open Wednesday, with FTSE 100 up 0.2%, DAX up 0.1%, and CAC 40 up 0.5%, while Italy’s FTSE MIB was flat. Sentiment is being driven by escalating U.S. trade actions: President Trump ruled out extending the Aug. 1 deadline for steep tariffs on 14 countries, announced a 50% tariff on copper imports, signaled more sector-specific measures, and threatened up to 200% tariffs on pharmaceutical imports with a 12–18 month lead time. Investors are watching OPEC’s seminar in Vienna, AI developments from the RAISE Summit in Paris, and prospects for a U.S.-EU trade deal, with no major European earnings or data due.
Entities: FTSE 100, DAX, CAC 40, FTSE MIB, U.S. tariffs • Tone: analytical • Sentiment: neutral • Intent: inform
09-07-2025
Global equities hit record highs in H1 2025, with the MSCI All Country World Index up nearly 10%. Europe led gains: Greece surged almost 60%, with Poland (+56%) and the Czech Republic (+52%) close behind; Spain, Italy and Germany also ranked among the top performers. Drivers included recovering growth, undervaluation, rotation out of U.S. assets earlier in the year, fiscal shifts (notably Germany), and resilience of European banks and defense stocks to tariff risks. U.S. markets rose about 7% but later rebounded to record highs.
In Asia, South Korea jumped over 30% on hopes for governance reforms, strong shipbuilding and AI-related memory chips, and expectations that U.S. tariffs would be absorbed by consumers. China gained over 17% amid potential yuan strength, policy support and earnings improvement, though broader growth remains pressured.
Laggards included Thailand (down ~13%) amid political turmoil, weak tourism recovery, and tariff hits to autos, and Turkey, hurt by political repression, soaring inflation and a weakening lira. Despite pockets of weakness, only five markets were down year-to-date, suggesting 2025 has been broadly bullish even as Trump’s tariff actions reshaped global flows.
Entities: MSCI All Country World Index, Europe, Greece, Poland, South Korea • Tone: analytical • Sentiment: neutral • Intent: inform
09-07-2025
Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev said retail investors outperformed institutional fund managers during the post-tariff market volatility by sticking to a long-term, conviction-based strategy and buying the dip. While institutions de-risked on macro fears after April’s tariff announcements, retail investors poured a record $85 billion into U.S. stocks and ETFs from April 1 to July 7, helping the S&P 500 rebound past pre-tariff levels and rally 25% from its April 8 low. Tenev highlighted retail focus on names like Nvidia, Tesla, and Amazon, arguing that this “back to basics” approach—buying companies they believe in despite macro noise—is a healthy shift from past retail behavior.
Entities: Vlad Tenev, Robinhood, retail investors, institutional fund managers, U.S. stocks and ETFs • Tone: analytical • Sentiment: positive • Intent: inform
09-07-2025
U.S. stock futures were flat as investors weighed new tariff measures from President Trump and awaited FOMC meeting minutes. Tuesday’s session saw the S&P 500 slip 0.07%, the Dow fall nearly 0.4%, and the Nasdaq edge up 0.03%. Global markets, including Japan’s Nikkei, Korea’s Kospi, and Europe’s Stoxx 600, posted modest gains despite Trump confirming sharp new tariffs of 25%–40% on 14 countries starting Aug. 1, a new 50% levy on copper, and a threat of up to 200% tariffs on pharmaceuticals after a 12–18 month lead time. Goldman Sachs highlighted dividend growth stocks like Lowe’s and NextEra Energy as volatility hedges. Separately, Jeff Bezos sold about $666 million in Amazon shares as part of a pre-announced plan, retaining over 900 million shares.
Entities: U.S. stock futures, President Trump, FOMC meeting minutes, S&P 500, Goldman Sachs • Tone: analytical • Sentiment: neutral • Intent: inform
09-07-2025
President Donald Trump published new letters dictating steep U.S. tariffs on imports from seven additional countries—Philippines, Brunei, Moldova, Algeria, Iraq, Libya and Sri Lanka—bringing the total to 21 nations facing rates of 20% to 40% starting Aug. 1. The nearly identical letters, shared via Truth Social, say tariffs could be adjusted based on bilateral relations and are aimed at reducing U.S. trade deficits, though some targets are minor trading partners with small deficits (e.g., Moldova at $85 million in 2024). The move follows Trump’s earlier “liberation day” tariff framework and comes after he delayed a broader tariff deadline to Aug. 1, insisting there will be no further extensions.
Entities: Donald Trump, United States tariffs, Truth Social, Philippines, Brunei • Tone: analytical • Sentiment: neutral • Intent: inform
09-07-2025
- U.S. copper prices spiked after President Trump announced plans for a 50% tariff on copper imports, sending the U.S. premium over global benchmarks to record levels.
- The Comex-LME spread jumped 138% to over $2,600/ton; U.S. prices rose 13% in a day to a record $5.69/lb, while LME prices barely moved.
- Analysts warn of broad economic fallout: higher costs for appliances, cars, electronics, housing, and infrastructure; potential demand destruction; and substitution toward aluminum.
- The U.S. imports nearly half its copper; boosting domestic production will take years due to permitting and capital needs, limiting short-term relief.
- By August, U.S. buyers could pay ~$15,000/ton versus ~$10,000 elsewhere if the full tariff hits, pressuring consumers, businesses, and AI/infrastructure build-outs.
- Traders had pre-positioned inventories into the U.S., but Citi expects the tariff to halt further shipments in 2025 and pull down ex-U.S. prices; the premium may not reach a full 50% due to stockpiles and potential exporter exemptions.
- Policy timing and scope remain uncertain, with officials suggesting late July or Aug. 1 implementation and possible negotiated carve-outs.
Entities: U.S. copper prices, President Trump, Comex-LME spread, LME, Citi • Tone: analytical • Sentiment: negative • Intent: warn
09-07-2025
- President Trump threatened a 50% tariff on Brazilian goods starting August 1, accusing President Lula of a “witch hunt” against former president Jair Bolsonaro over an alleged coup plot. Lula vowed reciprocal tariffs under Brazil’s economic reciprocity law.
- The US ran a $6.8 billion goods trade surplus with Brazil last year; retaliation could hit key US exports such as aircraft, fuels, and industrial machinery.
- Brazil joins a widening list of countries receiving tariff letters this week; others include the Philippines, Sri Lanka, Moldova, Brunei, Algeria, Libya, and Iraq, with rates up to 30%. Trump is tying tariffs to trade deficits, market access barriers, and, in Brazil’s case, domestic legal actions.
- Trump says tariffs can be avoided if companies shift production to the US and has threatened to escalate if partners retaliate. Few new trade deals have been finalized; the negotiation deadline was extended to August 1.
- JPMorgan called the Brazil threat the most surprising and noted the tariffs may never be implemented. Indonesia signaled intensified talks; the Philippines expressed concern and will seek a lower levy.
- Separately, Trump announced a 50% tariff on copper imports effective August 1, citing national security.
Entities: Donald Trump, Brazil, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Jair Bolsonaro, tariffs • Tone: urgent • Sentiment: negative • Intent: inform
09-07-2025
CNN reports that Wall Street is embracing the “TACO” trade—betting that President Trump will threaten sweeping tariffs but ultimately back down—after new tariff threats on copper, pharmaceuticals, and countries including Japan, Brazil, and BRICS members barely rattled markets. Analysts say this expectation reduced panic compared to April’s scare, when a market selloff prompted Trump to pause tariffs and fueled a rally. But experts warn of a paradox: if investors assume Trump will blink, markets won’t drop enough to pressure him to retreat, raising the risk he follows through. Despite Trump’s insistence that tariffs will start August 1 with “no extensions,” many on Wall Street still expect a climbdown, arguing he won’t risk recession and GOP political damage. The core risk: consensus complacency could remove the market shock that previously forced policy reversals.
Entities: Wall Street, Donald Trump, TACO trade, tariffs, BRICS • Tone: analytical • Sentiment: neutral • Intent: analyze
09-07-2025
The article explains that while President Trump has delayed sweeping new “reciprocal” tariffs to August 1, economists broadly warn such levies typically backfire. Tariffs act as taxes on imports, raising costs for businesses and prices for consumers—especially because about half of U.S. imports are intermediate goods used in production. Evidence from Trump’s 2018 tariffs shows near-complete pass-through to domestic prices, hurting consumers and contributing to goods inflation, which the Fed expects to rise further.
Beyond prices, research indicates tariffs reduce GDP by undermining specialization and productivity, increasing input costs, and creating policy uncertainty that chills business investment. Historical data and studies (including from the Fed and IMF) find that tariffs tend to lower output and, counterintuitively, can increase unemployment: industries that use taxed inputs (like steel) employ far more workers than the protected sectors, and retaliatory tariffs hit U.S. exporters. Although inflation and jobs haven’t yet worsened markedly, economists warn of delayed negative effects later in the year, suggesting the current calm may be misleading.
Entities: Donald Trump, tariffs, Federal Reserve, IMF, U.S. consumers • Tone: analytical • Sentiment: negative • Intent: warn
09-07-2025
President Trump announced a 50% tariff on all Brazilian imports starting Aug. 1, framing it as retaliation for what he calls a “witch hunt” against his ally, former President Jair Bolsonaro, who faces trial over efforts to overturn Brazil’s 2022 election. Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva vowed reciprocal measures, stressing Brazil’s judiciary is independent. Trump also cited alleged censorship of U.S. tech platforms and ordered a digital trade probe into Brazil. He inaccurately claimed a U.S. trade deficit with Brazil; the U.S. had a $7.4 billion surplus last year. The dispute risks significant economic fallout given deep trade ties. Brazil’s Supreme Court is expected to convict Bolsonaro; he is already barred from running next year. The U.S. Embassy in Brazil criticized Bolsonaro’s prosecution, prompting diplomatic protests from Brazil.
Entities: Donald Trump, Brazil, Jair Bolsonaro, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Brazilian Supreme Court • Tone: urgent • Sentiment: negative • Intent: inform
09-07-2025
President Trump expanded threats of steep tariffs to a wider range of countries, from major partners like Japan, South Korea, and Brazil to smaller nations including the Philippines, Sri Lanka, and Moldova, warning double-digit rates if no deals are reached by Aug. 1. He separately announced a 50% tariff on copper imports starting Aug. 1 and threatened a 50% tariff on Brazilian goods, citing both trade grievances and Brazil’s actions against Jair Bolsonaro. The administration is also weighing tariffs on pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and lumber, aiming to replace an earlier plan targeting about 60 countries with trade surpluses against the U.S. Economists criticized the focus on bilateral trade deficits as misguided. While the White House claims tariffs boost U.S. leverage and revenue, practical constraints make negotiating dozens of simultaneous deals unlikely, even as the EU, India, and others rush to talks. Copper prices spiked after the tariff signal.
Entities: Donald Trump, United States, Brazil, European Union, Japan • Tone: analytical • Sentiment: negative • Intent: inform
09-07-2025
Malaysia’s Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim will press US Secretary of State Marco Rubio at an Asean summit in Kuala Lumpur to reconsider looming US tariffs, after President Donald Trump warned 14 countries of levies of 25–40% by August 1. Malaysia faces a 25% tariff, up from an earlier 24%, which Anwar says would harm Malaysia’s trade-dependent economy and the broader region. Rubio’s visit is his first to Southeast Asia as top US diplomat and the most senior US engagement since Trump’s return, amid regional concerns that the tariffs will hit export-led growth by curbing US demand.
Entities: Anwar Ibrahim, Marco Rubio, United States tariffs, Malaysia, ASEAN summit • Tone: analytical • Sentiment: negative • Intent: inform
09-07-2025
The US’s sudden 50% tariff on copper imports jolted global markets, widening the price gap between US futures (which rallied) and London/Shanghai (which fell). China, the largest copper consumer, saw Shanghai futures drop 1.36%. Analysts warn that because tariffs may be implemented faster than shipments can arrive, the US market’s pull on physical copper will weaken, pressuring LME and SHFE prices despite arbitrage incentives. Details and potential exemptions remain unclear; most US refined copper currently comes from Chile and Canada. The shift may redirect refined copper away from the US, but not necessarily toward China.
Entities: United States, China, copper tariffs, London Metal Exchange (LME), Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) • Tone: analytical • Sentiment: neutral • Intent: inform
09-07-2025
US President Donald Trump announced new tariffs targeting Brazil and six smaller economies—Philippines (20%), Moldova (25%), Brunei (25%), Iraq (30%), Algeria (30%), and Libya (30%)—effective August 1, with the Brazil tariff raised to 50%. He framed the moves as responses to “non-reciprocal” trade and national security concerns, and cited Brazil’s prosecution of former president Jair Bolsonaro as a factor, calling it a “witch hunt.” The actions, presented via unilateral letters, come despite the US having a $7.4 billion goods surplus with Brazil in 2024. Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva criticized Trump’s threats as irresponsible. Trump suggested additional sector-specific tariffs could follow.
Entities: Donald Trump, Brazil, Jair Bolsonaro, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, tariffs • Tone: analytical • Sentiment: negative • Intent: inform
