China watches US moves, rethinks trade and Taiwan strategy

China is closely watching the US involvement in the Israel-Iran conflict, potentially gaining insights into American interventionism in regional disputes, and may benefit in the long term from the US appearing as an uncertain global power; China's leadership may use this to inform its approach to other flashpoints, including Taiwan.

Taiwan's war strategy has long relied on holding off a Chinese invasion for a month to allow the US to arrive and provide assistance. However, Taiwan is now considering an alternative plan to resist China without American help, based on the assumption that if it can survive a Chinese attack for a month, Beijing's leaders can be deterred.

China has warned countries not to sign trade deals with the US if they come at the expense of China's interests, stating that it will take "firm, resolute countermeasures" to defend its rights if such a situation arises. The warning comes as countries scramble to reach tariff agreements with the US ahead of a July 9 deadline to avoid reinstated tariffs. China's Ministry of Commerce also criticized US President Donald Trump's "reciprocal tariffs" as "unilateral bullying" and called on countries to uphold multilateral international trade rules.