Trump Tariffs and Global Fallout

U.S. tariff hikes are prompting Chinese manufacturers to pause production, furlough workers, and aggressively seek alternative markets and sales channels. Factories in export hubs like Yiwu and Dongguan report canceled U.S. orders, particularly for toys, sporting goods, and low-cost items, with some idling capacity for months. Small businesses face acute strain, spurring efforts to source outside China and launch support sites. To offset losses, companies are pivoting to domestic e-commerce and livestreaming with support from Chinese tech firms offering AI tools and purchasing pledges, though these measures cover only a fraction of lost U.S. demand. Firms are diversifying toward Europe, Latin America, India, and Africa, where trade routes and logistics networks have been expanding, while heightened U.S. scrutiny reduces transshipment options. Tariffs on both sides are expected to persist, reshaping supply chains and intensifying competition within China.

CNBC’s Daily Open argues that Trump’s “America First” approach could backfire as other countries adapt and collaborate, potentially leaving the U.S. behind. Southeast Asian nations are deepening intra-regional trade to offset Trump’s tariffs, while China signals expanded fiscal support and possible rate cuts. Trump signed an executive order to accelerate deep-sea mining to reduce reliance on China’s dominance in critical minerals. Markets ended last week higher (S&P 500’s first four-day streak since January; Nasdaq up; FTSE’s longest run since 2019), though U.S. futures dipped Sunday. This week brings heavy earnings from Big Tech and key U.S. inflation (PCE) and jobs data. ECB officials signaled continued disinflation and likely rate cuts but warned tariff uncertainty poses growth risks.

U.S. stock futures dipped ahead of a heavy earnings week, with Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100 futures down roughly 0.2%–0.6%. More than 180 S&P 500 companies report, including Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Visa, Coca-Cola, Eli Lilly, and Berkshire Hathaway. About 73% of companies have beaten Q1 estimates so far, below the 5-year average, and expectations are softening for Q2 and full-year results. Market volatility has been elevated amid uncertainty over President Trump’s proposed tariffs. For April, the S&P 500 is down 1.5%, the Dow off 4.5%, and the Nasdaq up 0.5%; the S&P briefly entered a bear market earlier in the month but has since rebounded off key support.

CNN analysis argues that in his first 100 days back in office, Trump pushed the US economy toward crisis through sweeping, erratic tariff policies and pressure on the Federal Reserve, undermining markets and business confidence. Stocks lost trillions in value, growth forecasts fell, hiring slowed, and consumer sentiment plunged, while airlines cut flights and retailers scrambled due to disrupted supply chains. Trump’s unilateral “national emergency” tariff regime—framed as “economic independence” and aimed at coercing trade partners and reshoring jobs—has sparked retaliation, uncertainty, and expectations of higher inflation and possible recession. A brief pause of tariffs after bond market alarm underscored policy volatility. The article notes strained alliances, escalating confrontation with China, and declining public approval of Trump’s economic handling, with few concrete trade deals materializing despite administration claims.

Sky News analyzes the political weight of the “first 100 days” benchmark, tracing it from Napoleon to FDR, and applies it to Donald Trump’s return to the presidency. Trump is staging a Michigan rally to celebrate, but the piece argues his 100-day report card is mixed to negative by traditional measures. Economically, the S&P 500 is down over 15% and the IMF has cut global growth forecasts amid his tariff push. Democratically, critics say he’s eroded norms by profiting from office, pressuring the justice system, pardoning January 6 rioters, empowering Elon Musk to slash government via an unofficial efficiency drive, and launching a “Trump 2028” bid despite constitutional limits. He’s issued 124 executive orders already, aided by a compliant Republican Congress, accelerating a sweeping consolidation of executive power and dismantling parts of the federal state and post-WWII alliances. Foreign-policy promises have largely fallen short: no “day one” peace in Ukraine, Gaza war persists, saber-rattling toward Canada and designs on Greenland have backfired. While some observers call these first 100 days the most consequential in modern times, the article frames them as an awkward reckoning against historical standards for economic stability, democratic integrity, and global leadership.

Market turbulence sparked by President Trump’s unpredictable trade stance and brief threats against Fed leadership has weakened confidence in U.S. assets, lifting the euro and euro-denominated securities. The euro has risen about 5.4% against the dollar since early April, amid growing investor interest driven by Europe’s relative stability, improved bond returns, and confidence in the European Central Bank as lender of last resort. Germany’s move to relax its “debt brake” and issue up to €1 trillion in additional bunds—seen as the safest euro assets—has further bolstered demand, with bund yields falling as U.S. Treasury yields climbed. Policymakers caution that the euro’s gains may reflect diversification rather than a wholesale shift from the dollar. Structural hurdles remain: Europe must deepen its single market, develop a unified capital market, and sustain political cohesion to solidify the euro’s global role. While optimism is rising, officials and economists say the path to significantly expanding the euro’s international standing will be gradual, with investors likely spreading exposure across multiple safe havens, including gold and the Swiss franc.

The article argues that many of the economic and geopolitical disruptions from President Trump’s tariff war and broader anti-globalist agenda will be difficult to reverse, even if political control changes. Key reasons include eroded trust in U.S. reliability, which pushes allies to forge trade and security ties that exclude America; expanded opportunities for China to position itself as a stable champion of free trade and to deepen influence in regions like Africa and Southeast Asia; and weakened U.S. capacity due to cuts to research, data, and diplomatic institutions that are hard to rebuild. These shifts could permanently alter supply chains, talent flows, and global governance, making it unlikely the U.S. can quickly restore its prior economic and leadership position.

SCMP highlights five weekend stories: potential economic harm to Taiwan from new US Trump-era tariffs and whether Taipei can still rely on Washington; why Beijing is adopting a tougher approach to Donald Trump this time; Bangladesh’s interim leader Muhammad Yunus’s ambitious plans and his outreach to China; plus features including the benefits of sex therapy.