Articles in this Cluster
28-04-2025
The US dollar has fallen over 8% this year, prompting investment banks to warn of a potential structural decline. Deutsche Bank and Barclays forecast a sustained dollar weakness, citing risks such as shifts in US trade policy and the unwinding of foreign investments in American assets. Factors contributing to the decline include President Trump's trade tariff policy and attacks on the US central bank, eroding confidence in the currency. Goldman Sachs and Bank of America expect the dollar to continue to depreciate, with the latter predicting a 3.5% further decline to 1.19 dollars per euro by the end of the year. Some analysts, however, expect the dollar to recover lost ground as interest rate differentials reassert themselves.
28-04-2025
Stock futures declined on Monday ahead of a busy earnings week, with futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100 all slipping. Over 180 S&P 500 companies, including Amazon, Apple, Meta Platforms, and Microsoft, are set to report their quarterly results. Despite 73% of companies reporting so far beating analysts' estimates, Wall Street is lowering expectations for the second quarter and full year, and market volatility remains due to uncertainty around President Trump's tariff policies. The S&P 500 is on track to end April down 1.5%, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average set to lose 4.5% and the Nasdaq Composite up 0.5%.
28-04-2025
The US dollar's recent weakness has created an opportunity for the euro to gain traction as a global currency. European officials are optimistic that the euro's stability and predictability will attract investors, and the currency has already gained 5.4% against the dollar since April. The euro's rise is driven by a combination of factors, including a more unified Europe, better returns on European bonds, and the prospect of Germany issuing additional government debt. However, some experts caution that the euro still has a long way to go to challenge the dollar's dominance and that a more diversified global currency landscape is a more likely outcome. European officials emphasize the need for further integration and structural changes to strengthen the euro's position, including deepening the single market and creating a single capital market.
28-04-2025
Donald Trump's first 100 days back in office saw the US economy brought to the brink of crisis due to his policies, particularly the imposition of tariffs. The policies have sparked fear among voters, wiped trillions off stock markets, and led to airlines cutting flights and retailers stopping sales of China-made goods. The International Monetary Fund cut US growth forecasts, and consumer sentiment plummeted to its fourth-lowest level since 1952. Trump's trade policy is seen as legally and constitutionally questionable, and his approach has alienated American allies. Despite his claims of being the "ultimate dealmaker," Trump's approval rating has plummeted to 41%, with only 39% approving of his handling of the economy. His policies have created uncertainty, potentially leading to a recession, and his interference with the Federal Reserve has tarnished America's reputation as a financial safe haven.
28-04-2025
U.S. President Donald Trump's "America First" ideology may ultimately backfire and leave the U.S. behind as other countries adapt and respond to his nationalistic policies. Southeast Asian nations are banding together to increase intra-regional trade and diversify their export destinations in the face of Trump's tariffs and the U.S.-China trade war. China is also preparing to strengthen its fiscal stimulus in response to Trump's threats, and has a dominant position in critical mineral supply chains, which the U.S. is trying to offset by jump-starting deep-sea mining. The shift in global dynamics may ultimately disadvantage the U.S. as other countries take measures to reduce their dependence on it.
28-04-2025
Donald Trump's 100 days back in office as US President have been marked by controversy and significant actions that have sparked criticism. Trump's critics accuse him of undermining democracy, exploiting his position for personal gain, and persecuting opponents through the justice system. He has also pardoned January 6th US Capitol insurrectionists and launched a "Trump 2028" campaign, defying the US Constitution's term limits. Economically, the S&P 500 stock index has dropped over 15% under his presidency, and the IMF has revised down global growth forecasts due to his tariff policies. Trump has been issuing executive orders at a rapid pace, signing 124 so far, and has been aided by a Republican-controlled Congress. Despite his efforts, Trump has faced notable failures in foreign policy, including failing to bring peace to Ukraine and escalating tensions with Canada. His presidency is facing an "awkward reckoning" 100 days in, with many of his actions being criticized as detrimental to democracy and the economy.
