24-04-2025

Tariff Turmoil Reshapes Markets and Policy

Date: 24-04-2025
Sources: bbc.com: 2 | cnbc.com: 8 | edition.cnn.com: 3 | nytimes.com: 2 | scmp.com: 1 | theguardian.com: 1
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Source: nytimes.com

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Summary

Escalating and shifting U.S. tariff policies—145% on China and broad duties elsewhere—are roiling global markets, corporate outlooks, and central bank decisions while prompting political, legal, and diplomatic clashes. Hopes for a “big” U.S.-China deal and signals of possible tariff reductions lifted equities, yet Beijing publicly denies ongoing talks, keeping uncertainty high. Corporations from tech to consumer goods cut forecasts and warn of price hikes and margin pressure, while sectors like spirits and aviation fear demand erosion. ECB officials stress data dependence amid tariff-driven inflation and growth risks, and Europe eyes deeper integration to bolster resilience. Legal challenges from U.S. states contest the administration’s tariff authority, and investors confront volatility, exemplified by Norway’s wealth fund losses and mixed earnings. Against this backdrop, Elon Musk pivots focus back to Tesla amid profit plunges, underscoring how trade tensions and policy flux are reshaping corporate strategies and sentiment.

Key Points

  • U.S.-China tensions intensify with 145% tariffs, mixed signals on negotiations, and global spillovers.
  • Markets rebound on de-escalation hopes, but volatility persists amid earnings misses and sector downgrades.
  • Companies slash guidance and warn of price hikes as tariffs squeeze margins and demand.
  • ECB urges caution on rate cuts given tariff uncertainty; Europe weighs deeper economic integration.
  • Legal and political pushback grows, with states suing over tariff authority and allies threatening retaliation.

Articles in this Cluster

Elon Musk to step back from Doge as Tesla profits plungeBritish Broadcasting CorporationBritish Broadcasting Corporation

Elon Musk said he will significantly reduce his involvement in the US government’s Department for Government Efficiency (Doge) to one or two days a week, following a sharp downturn at Tesla, which reported a 20% drop in quarterly sales and a more than 70% fall in profits. Facing protests, boycotts, and trade-war headwinds, Tesla warned that shifting political sentiment and tariffs could hurt demand and costs. While Musk plans to refocus on Tesla, he intends to remain in the Trump administration as long as needed. Tesla shares, down 37% this year, rose 5% after hours despite mounting competition and supply-chain risks.
Entities: Elon Musk, Tesla, Department for Government Efficiency (Doge), Trump administration, tariffsTone: analyticalSentiment: negativeIntent: inform

US-China trade deal: A big opportunity for one, says Scott Bessent British Broadcasting CorporationBritish Broadcasting Corporation

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said there’s an “incredible opportunity” for a major US-China trade deal if China commits to shifting from export-led manufacturing toward a more domestic-focused economy, aligning with the US push to rebalance toward manufacturing and less consumption. His remarks, amid escalating tariffs—up to 145% by the US and 125% by China—sparked market optimism and stock gains on hopes of de-escalation. Bessent also urged the IMF and World Bank to refocus on core mandates of stability and development rather than issues like climate and social policy, saying the US will use its influence to steer them without withdrawing.
Entities: Scott Bessent, United States, China, US-China trade deal, tariffsTone: analyticalSentiment: positiveIntent: inform

CNBC Daily Open: Trump starts trade war but also blinks first

U.S. markets rallied after President Trump signaled current 145% tariffs on Chinese imports will be reduced “substantially,” though not to zero, softening earlier hardline rhetoric. China welcomed talks without conceding ground. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said there’s an “opportunity for a big deal” to rebalance trade. Meanwhile, 12 states sued the administration claiming the new tariffs are illegal. Google is requiring some previously approved remote workers to return to offices or face job risk amid cost cuts. IBM beat Q1 revenue and earnings expectations but saw net income decline, reaffirming 2025 guidance. European regulators fined Apple €500 million and Meta €200 million for DMA violations. The Dow rose 1.07%, S&P 1.67%, and Nasdaq 2.50%, with Europe’s Stoxx 600 up 1.78%.
Entities: Donald Trump, China, U.S. tariffs, Scott Bessent, GoogleTone: analyticalSentiment: neutralIntent: inform

ECB's Holzmann says rate cuts must wait for more tariff certainty

ECB hawks Robert Holzmann and Klaas Knot urged caution on further rate cuts amid high uncertainty over U.S. tariffs and potential EU countermeasures. Holzmann said the ECB should wait for political clarity because tariffs could either push prices up (with EU retaliation) or down (without it). Despite a unanimous 25 bps cut in April, he favored a slower approach and said more cuts in 2025 remain possible but undecided. Knot said June’s decision depends on new staff projections, noting tariffs likely hurt growth and lower inflation in the short term, but medium-term effects could be inflationary due to retaliation and supply chain disruption. Both see current rates as roughly neutral and stress extreme data dependence.
Entities: European Central Bank, Robert Holzmann, Klaas Knot, U.S. tariffs, EU countermeasuresTone: analyticalSentiment: neutralIntent: inform

Europe can assert itself as superpower amid tariffs: ECB's Kazāks

ECB Governing Council member and Latvian central bank chief Mārtiņš Kazāks says heightened tariff uncertainty is both a risk and an opportunity for Europe to assert itself as an economic and geopolitical superpower. He urges deeper EU integration—capital markets union, fiscal union, and a true single market in services—requiring strong political will. For monetary policy, the ECB will proceed meeting-by-meeting given poor visibility and elevated uncertainty from tariff tensions, while monitoring markets for sentiment shifts. He notes markets remain orderly so far but macro risks are high, views IMF growth forecasts as optimistic, and warns the risk of a global recession is “not trivial.”
Entities: European Central Bank (ECB), Mārtiņš Kazāks, European Union (EU), capital markets union, fiscal unionTone: analyticalSentiment: neutralIntent: analyze

Stock market today: Live updates

U.S. stock futures edged higher Wednesday night after a second straight positive session, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.3% and Dow futures slightly lower. In after-hours moves, IBM fell over 6% despite topping Q1 estimates but holding guidance, while Southwest dropped more than 2% on schedule cuts and withdrawn EBIT guidance for 2025–2026. Earlier, the S&P 500 rose 1.7%, Nasdaq 2.5%, and Dow 400+ points, though all closed off intraday highs. Sentiment improved on hopes of easing U.S.-China trade tensions after the administration signaled a less confrontational approach and potential for a “big deal,” despite current 145% tariffs on Chinese imports. Markets also reacted positively to Trump saying he won’t fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Major indexes are on track for weekly gains: Nasdaq +2.6%, S&P 500 +1.8%, Dow +1.2%. Strategists cautioned the rebound may be a bear market rally, noting key resistance for the S&P 500 at 5500–5700. Deutsche Bank said markets aren’t fully pricing a recession, implying downside risk if one materializes. Upcoming catalysts include earnings from Alphabet, Intel, and PepsiCo, plus durable goods orders and jobless claims. After-hours movers included Chipotle (down on soft comps and lowered outlook), Texas Instruments (up on earnings beat), and Southwest (down on capacity cuts).
Entities: S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Dow Jones, IBM, Southwest AirlinesTone: analyticalSentiment: neutralIntent: inform

Thursday’s big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market

Stocks logged a second straight gain, but volatility hinges on President Trump’s policy direction, per Jim Cramer. Since the election, major indexes are broadly lower (Dow Transports -18%, Russell 2000 -15.1%, Nasdaq 100 -7.6%, S&P 500 -7%). Since the April 2 tariff announcement, most are down about 5–10%. Earnings and movers to watch Thursday: - Airlines: Southwest beat but withheld guidance and is cutting flights; Alaska Air posted mixed results and suspended guidance; both fell after hours. American Airlines reports in the morning after a steep slide since January. CEOs of all three will appear on CNBC. - Uber: Cramer advises holding long term; shares are up YTD but off 15% from October highs. - Alphabet: Reports after the bell; stock is 25% below its February peak, down 21.5% in three months. - Intel: Earnings after the close; shares are 45% below the 52-week high. - Chipotle: Missed revenue, first same-store sales decline since 2020; stock down after hours and 30% off its 2024 high. - Kohl’s: Hits 100 days under CEO Ashley Buchanan; shares down 47% vs. XRT down 13.2%. - Skechers: Reports after the bell; shares down 35% in three months. CNBC is also promoting an in-person CNBC Pro LIVE event at the NYSE on June 12.
Entities: Jim Cramer, President Trump, CNBC, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100Tone: analyticalSentiment: neutralIntent: inform

Trump asserts trade talks with China are underway after Beijing denies any ongoing negotiations

President Trump claimed U.S.-China trade talks are underway, contradicting China’s Commerce and Foreign Ministries, which insisted no negotiations are happening and urged the U.S. to cancel “unilateral” tariffs. The dispute follows new 145% U.S. tariffs and Chinese countermeasures, with analysts noting China seeks de-escalation but may adopt a tougher stance if tensions rise. Economists say meaningful talks would likely require the U.S. to roll back tariffs, creating political risks for the Trump administration.
Entities: Donald Trump, China, U.S.-China trade talks, U.S. tariffs, Chinese countermeasuresTone: analyticalSentiment: neutralIntent: inform

Trump tariffs: Pepsi, Chipotle, P&G cut earnings forecasts

Multiple consumer companies, including PepsiCo, Chipotle, and Procter & Gamble, cut full-year forecasts, citing higher costs from Trump’s tariff plan and a weakening, cautious consumer. Current tariffs include a 10% duty on most imports (excluding China at 145%) during a 90-day pause, with shifting policy signals creating uncertainty. Companies warn of impending price increases to offset inflationary pressures; P&G, Keurig Dr Pepper, and Hasbro flagged potential hikes, while airlines and aerospace firms decried rising costs and urged exemptions. Consumer sentiment has plunged, leading to reduced spending and traffic, pressuring sales at retailers and restaurants. Airlines pulled or adjusted guidance amid softer economy-class and corporate demand. Overall, tariffs and uncertainty are squeezing margins, prompting price increases, conservative outlooks, and potential job impacts.
Entities: PepsiCo, Chipotle, Procter & Gamble, Trump tariff plan, Keurig Dr PepperTone: analyticalSentiment: negativeIntent: inform

World’s largest sovereign wealth fund reports $40 billion loss in first quarter on tech downturn

Norway’s $1.7 trillion sovereign wealth fund (NBIM) posted a Q1 loss of 415 billion kroner (~$40 billion), driven mainly by a 1.6% decline in its equity portfolio amid a tech sector downturn. The fund’s value fell to 18.53 trillion kroner, with additional drag from currency effects as a stronger krone reduced the fund’s value by 879 billion kroner. Fixed income (27.7% of assets) returned 1.6% and unlisted real estate (1.9%) gained 2.4%. The fund, a major shareholder in U.S. tech giants, was hit by a March megacap sell-off tied to tariff concerns and earlier AI-driven volatility, following a record 2024 profit fueled by the AI rally.
Entities: Norway’s sovereign wealth fund (NBIM), tech sector downturn, krone (Norwegian currency), equity portfolio, fixed incomeTone: analyticalSentiment: negativeIntent: inform

CEO who voted for Trump made a public warning about his trade war | CNN BusinessClose icon

Citadel CEO Ken Griffin, a prominent Republican donor who voted for Donald Trump, publicly criticized Trump’s trade war, warning that tariffs are harmful. In a CNN video segment, Griffin argued the policy risks economic damage and market instability, standing out as unusually harsh criticism from a Trump supporter.
Entities: Ken Griffin, Citadel, Donald Trump, CNN, Republican donorTone: analyticalSentiment: negativeIntent: critique

Trump starts the clock for new tariffs to take effect | CNN BusinessClose icon

President Trump said he could reimpose new “reciprocal” tariffs within two to three weeks, escalating trade tensions after briefly pausing a broader tariff plan to allow negotiations with 90–100 countries. The US currently has a 10% universal tariff plus higher rates on certain goods; without deals, new tariffs could reach up to 50% for many countries and 145% for China. The shifting policy has unsettled markets—despite a brief rebound, the S&P 500 remains down $7 trillion from February highs—and raised recession fears. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent signaled the China trade war is unsustainable and may de-escalate soon, though a full normalization could take 2–3 years and tariffs may not be fully removed. China urged the US to stop “threatening and blackmailing” and seek negotiations on equal terms. Trump said he won’t wait indefinitely for deals and may restart tariffs soon.
Entities: Donald Trump, United States, China, reciprocal tariffs, S&P 500Tone: urgentSentiment: negativeIntent: inform

US spirits exports hit a record high in 2024. Tariffs could destroy that | CNN BusinessClose icon

US spirits exports hit a record $2.4 billion in 2024, driven largely by a rebuilt trade relationship with the EU, where shipments rose 39% and whiskey exports nearly 60% to $699 million after EU tariffs were lifted in 2022. However, new or returning tariffs threaten this growth: the EU has delayed reimposing duties amid a 90-day pause announced by President Trump, while Canada has enacted a 25% retaliatory tariff leading to product removals from stores. The EU accounts for about half of US spirits exports ($1.2 billion), making it critical to maintain tariff-free access. Beyond tariffs, post-pandemic demand softening has cut exports to the rest of the world by nearly 10%, contributing to layoffs and bankruptcies. Over the long term, exports have grown from $478 million in 2000 to $2.4 billion in 2024, aided by tariff-free access with 51 countries.
Entities: US spirits exports, European Union, whiskey, tariffs, CanadaTone: analyticalSentiment: neutralIntent: inform

12 States Sue Trump Over His Tariffs - The New York Times

Twelve states led by Democratic attorneys general sued President Trump in the U.S. Court of International Trade, arguing his sweeping tariffs—145% on China, 25% on Canada, and 10% on most other imports—are unlawful because only Congress can set tariffs. Led by Oregon, and including New York, Illinois, and others, the suit claims the tariffs harm state economies and raise consumer costs. The White House called the case a partisan “witch hunt,” saying the tariffs address national emergencies and trade deficits. The challenge follows California’s separate suit and other legal actions, including from tribal members and civil liberties groups.
Entities: United States Court of International Trade, Donald Trump, Oregon, New York, IllinoisTone: analyticalSentiment: neutralIntent: inform

On TikTok, Chinese Manufacturers Open a New Line in the Trade War - The New York Timesbarsbars

Chinese manufacturers are using TikTok and Instagram to market factory-direct “dupes” of luxury and popular brands to U.S. consumers amid looming higher tariffs on Chinese imports. Influencers amplify the trend, driving downloads of apps like DHGate and Taobao and generating sympathy for China while framing purchases as a way to beat price hikes. Analysts say most claims of being official suppliers to brands like Lululemon, Hermès, and Birkenstock are false; brands and platforms are removing posts tied to counterfeits, though reposts persist. The surge—likely tolerated by Chinese authorities—reflects both factory slowdowns and a strategic bid to reach Americans directly, politicizing trade tensions and highlighting U.S. reliance on Chinese goods.
Entities: TikTok, Instagram, Chinese manufacturers, U.S. consumers, DHGateTone: analyticalSentiment: neutralIntent: analyze

Trump denies China’s statement about no trade talks with US, says they met ‘this morning’ | South China Morning Post

US President Donald Trump contradicted China’s claim that no trade talks were taking place, saying unspecified US and Chinese representatives met “this morning.” He declined to identify participants, while reiterating that engagement was occurring. China’s Foreign Ministry dismissed reports of consultations as “fake news,” stating no negotiations or tariff agreements had been made. The exchange follows new US tariffs of 145% on Chinese goods and China’s retaliatory duties and mineral export restrictions, despite recent US signals of possible tension easing.
Entities: Donald Trump, China Foreign Ministry, United States, China, trade talksTone: analyticalSentiment: neutralIntent: inform

US and China holding talks on trade war, Trump says after Beijing rebuttal | International trade | The Guardian

Donald Trump said the US and China held talks to resolve their escalating trade war, claiming meetings took place despite Beijing’s public denial that any negotiations are underway. China’s commerce and foreign ministries called reports of progress “baseless,” insisting the US must cancel unilateral tariffs for dialogue to resume. Tariff levels have surged—145% on Chinese goods entering the US and China’s 125% retaliation—prompting IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva to urge a swift truce to reduce uncertainty that is weighing on global growth, now forecast at 2.8%. While the US touts potential trade deals, none have been signed, and most countries face US tariffs of 10% (and 25% on some goods) pending the end of a 90-day pause. China is courting other partners, criticizing US “hegemony,” as the IMF calls for Chinese economic reforms and balanced global negotiations.
Entities: United States, China, Donald Trump, Beijing, International Monetary Fund (IMF)Tone: analyticalSentiment: negativeIntent: inform