18-04-2025

Global Market Volatility Amid Trade Tensions and Recession Fears

Date: 18-04-2025
Sources: cnbc.com: 3 | economist.com: 6 | edition.cnn.com: 1 | nytimes.com: 1
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Image Prompt:

Create an image of a calm investor sitting in front of a computer screen displaying a diversified stock portfolio, with a subtle background graph showing market fluctuations, surrounded by symbols of technology and telecommunications such as smartphones and fiber optic cables.

Summary

The global economy is experiencing heightened volatility due to trade tensions, recession concerns, and the potential impact of a second Trump presidency on the US dollar's dominance. Investors are navigating these challenges by identifying defensive stocks, diversifying portfolios, and preparing for potential market fluctuations.

Key Points

  • Leap Edge Capital's Mitchell Green remains bullish on tech investments despite recession concerns, citing opportunities to buy stakes at discounted prices.
  • The stock market is expected to remain volatile next week due to tariffs and trade deals, with some strategists seeing a potential 'Fed put' to support the economy.
  • Defensive telecom stocks like Verizon and SBA Communications are identified as potential safe-havens, with positive analyst outlooks and dividend yields.
  • The US dollar's dominance is facing challenges, with potential implications for the global economy, particularly for poor countries that typically benefit from a weaker dollar.
  • Investors are advised to remain calm and measured, diversifying portfolios and building cash reserves to navigate market volatility.

Articles in this Cluster

'Fortunes are made during recessions': VC investor on where he invests

Mitchell Green, founder and CEO of Leap Edge Capital, welcomes a potential US recession, saying "fortunes are made during recessions" and that his firm is not afraid to invest during economic downturns. Leap Edge Capital has $5 billion in assets under management and invests in tech businesses, including stakes in companies like Spotify, Bumble, Uber, ByteDance, Alibaba, and Ant Group. Green believes that during a recession, venture capital firms may be forced to sell their stakes in companies at a discount, providing opportunities for investors like Leap Edge to buy at lower prices. He remains bullish on China despite the country's economic slowdown and plans to maintain his firm's investment in ByteDance, citing the company's strong management team and growth potential outside the US.
Entities: Mitchell Green, Leap Edge Capital, US, Spotify, BumbleTone: analyticalSentiment: positiveIntent: inform

Stock market next week: Outlook for April 21-25, 2025

The stock market is expected to remain volatile next week as investors continue to navigate the impact of tariffs and trade deals. Despite concerns, some strategists are optimistic that the worst is behind them, citing the possibility of "marginal victories" for America in trade deals and a potential "Fed put" to support the economy. The S&P 500 is expected to retest its 4,800 low, but some strategists see this as a buying opportunity. Earnings season is ramping up, with over 120 S&P 500 companies set to report, including Alphabet and Tesla, and so far, 72% of companies that have reported have beaten expectations. Key economic data releases next week include Leading Indicators, Richmond Fed Index, and Existing Home Sales.
Entities: S&P 500, America, Fed, Alphabet, TeslaTone: analyticalSentiment: neutralIntent: analyze

These defensive telecom stocks can bolster your portfolio

Bank of America traders identified defensive telecom stocks that can help bolster investors' portfolios amid uncertainty around President Donald Trump's tariffs. Verizon and SBA Communications are among the stocks that have historically outperformed the S&P 500 during market downturns, with Verizon offering a 6.1% dividend yield and SBA Communications posting a 1.9% dividend yield. Both stocks have gained significantly in 2025, with Verizon up 10% and SBA Communications up 12%, and have a positive outlook from analysts, with potential upside of 7% and 9%, respectively.
Entities: Bank of America, President Donald Trump, Verizon, SBA Communications, S&P 500Tone: analyticalSentiment: positiveIntent: inform

Hell is other people’s currencies

The article "Hell is other people's currencies" discusses the dominance of the US dollar and the potential challenges it may face. The author references Kenneth Rogoff's new book, "Our Dollar, Your Problem", which considers alternative scenarios where other currencies, such as the rouble, could have become global reserve currencies. The article highlights the historical context of the dollar's rise to dominance and notes that the Trump administration may soon face the challenges associated with being the issuer of a global reserve currency.
Entities: US dollar, Kenneth Rogoff, Our Dollar, Your Problem, Trump administration, roubleTone: analyticalSentiment: neutralIntent: analyze

How a dollar crisis would unfold

The dollar has fallen by over 9% against a basket of major currencies since mid-January, with a significant portion of that decline happening recently despite rising yields on ten-year Treasuries, indicating that investors think America has become riskier; this has sparked rumors that big foreign asset managers are dumping greenbacks, potentially setting the stage for a dollar crisis with severe consequences for the global economy.
Entities: America, dollar, major currencies, ten-year Treasuries, foreign asset managersTone: analyticalSentiment: negativeIntent: analyze

How Trump might topple the dollar

The dollar's long-standing dominance is looking vulnerable for the first time in many decades, breaking a historical relationship between US stocks, bond yields, and the currency's value. The article explores how a potential second Trump presidency might contribute to the dollar's decline.
Entities: Trump, dollar, US stocks, bond yields, USTone: analyticalSentiment: neutralIntent: analyze

Poor countries would miss King Dollar

A falling dollar is typically beneficial for poor countries as it reduces their debt burden, makes imports cheaper, and boosts investor optimism. However, the article suggests that this time may be different, implying that poor countries might miss the current strong dollar, contrary to their usual preference for a weaker one.
Entities: King Dollar, poor countries, dollarTone: analyticalSentiment: neutralIntent: analyze

Short-term pain, long-term gain, says Trump. Really?

Donald Trump's policies have caused short-term economic turbulence, including a sell-off in stocks and bonds, but he claims this is just a "transition cost" on the path to a stronger American economy. He has downplayed the negative effects, calling them "a little bit yippy" and promising that the end result will be "a beautiful thing".
Entities: Donald Trump, American economy, stocks, bondsTone: analyticalSentiment: negativeIntent: analyze

Stockmarkets do not reward firms for investing in Trump’s America

Stock markets do not reward companies for investing in the US under a hypothetical second Trump administration, as evidenced by the performance of firms like Stellantis, Merck, and Barry Callebaut that have invested in the US. The article questions the benefits of "reshoring" or bringing back production to the US, suggesting that it may not be a sound investment strategy.
Entities: Stockmarkets, Trump, America, Stellantis, MerckTone: analyticalSentiment: neutralIntent: analyze

How to protect your money when markets get rocky | CNN BusinessClose icon

With the US market experiencing high volatility due to escalating trade tensions and gloomy economic forecasts, many Americans are nervous about their investment portfolios. Experts advise against panic and recommend having a plan, working with financial advisors, and continuing to invest, especially for those with 401(k)s. For those looking to de-risk, building a cash reserve, diversifying, and rebalancing portfolios are suggested. Investors can consider cash equivalents like high-yield savings accounts or US Treasury bills, but going all cash out of fear is often the worst move. A calm and measured approach, staying consistent and disciplined, is key to navigating rocky markets.
Entities: US market, CNN Business, Americans, 401(k), US Treasury billsTone: analyticalSentiment: neutralIntent: inform

Trump Shifted on Tariffs After Bond Holders Got Jittery. He Held Millions Himself. - The New York Times

President Trump paused a round of global tariffs, attributing his change of heart to the bond market, which he has a significant personal stake in. A New York Times analysis found that Trump had between $125 million and $443 million invested in bonds as of last year, far exceeding his stock market exposure. Trump's decision came after the bond market began to collapse, posing a potential threat to the global economy. The pause in tariffs led to the biggest one-day gain in the stock market since 2008, raising questions about whether Trump or his associates may have personally benefited from the move. Trump's financial holdings have raised ethical concerns due to his decision not to put his assets into a blind trust, potentially creating a conflict of interest.
Entities: Donald Trump, The New York Times, United States, bond market, stock marketTone: analyticalSentiment: negativeIntent: inform