Articles in this Cluster
17-04-2025
Global markets were hit by renewed trade tensions as the World Trade Organization (WTO) warned that the outlook for global trade has "deteriorated sharply" due to rising tariffs and trade policy uncertainty. US stocks fell, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq Composite declining 2.24%, 1.73%, and 3.07%, respectively. The WTO forecast a 0.2% decline in global merchandise trade in 2025. US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell expressed concern over the tension between keeping inflation down and employment up, citing threats from tariffs. Freight ships from China are canceling trips, affecting the US economy, with 80 blank sailings recorded. Meanwhile, Nvidia took a $5.5 billion charge due to canceled chip exports to China, and ASML shares tumbled 5.2% after the company reported a slowdown in demand for its chipmaking machines.
17-04-2025
The World Trade Organization (WTO) has forecast that global trade will shrink this year due to US President Donald Trump's tariffs, revising its previous expectation of 2.7% growth to a 0.2% decline. The WTO cited "severe downside risks" including reciprocal tariffs and political uncertainty, with North America expected to be particularly affected, seeing a drop of more than a tenth. Despite this, some regions such as Asia and Europe are still projected to see modest trade growth, with services trade expected to grow by 4% in 2025.
17-04-2025
Asia-Pacific markets mostly rose on Thursday despite a sharp decline on Wall Street after US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warned that trade tensions could challenge the central bank's goals. India's Nifty 50 and BSE Sensex fell slightly, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index rose 1.65%. Japan's Nikkei 225 gained 0.85%, and Australia's S&P/ASX 200 increased 0.57%. South Korea's Kospi index was up 0.68% after the central bank held interest rates at 2.75%. Hong Kong tech giants climbed despite a tech sell-off on Wall Street, with the Hang Seng Tech index surging 2.3%. Asian chip-related stocks traded mixed after Nvidia's 6.9% decline.
17-04-2025
European markets are expected to open lower on Thursday as investors await the European Central Bank's monetary policy decision, widely expected to be a quarter-point interest rate cut to 2.25%. The UK's FTSE 100, Germany's DAX, France's CAC, and Italy's FTSE MIB are all expected to open in negative territory. The ECB's decision comes amid concerns over the euro zone's economic growth outlook and global trade tensions. Earnings reports from several major companies, including ABB, Hermes, and L'Oreal, are also on the agenda. Overnight, Asia-Pacific markets mostly rose, while Wall Street declined sharply after US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell cautioned about the impact of trade tensions.
17-04-2025
Japan's March exports rose by 3.9% year-over-year, missing expectations of a 4.5% increase and down from February's 11.4% jump. Exports to the US, Japan's second-largest trading partner, increased by 3.1%. The data reflects the partial impact of US tariffs on steel and aluminum but not the full effect of auto tariffs, which came into effect in April. Japan's trade deficit narrowed to 544.1 billion yen but was wider than expected. Experts warn that Japan's export growth may be further hurt by escalating US-China trade tensions.
17-04-2025
South Korea's central bank held its policy rate at 2.75%, in line with economist expectations, to shore up the won amid high uncertainty regarding its economic outlook due to changes in U.S. tariff policies and government stimulus measures. The bank warned that GDP growth for 2025 is expected to fall below its February forecast of 1.5% due to weaker domestic demand and exports. The decision comes as the country grapples with U.S. tariffs and prepares for a snap presidential election on June 3.
17-04-2025
The US-China trade war is causing significant disruptions to global supply chains as tariffs reach record levels, with some items facing triple-digit tax rates. As a result, manufacturers are seeking "off-the-books" workarounds, such as grey routes and proxy factories, to evade tariffs, leading to a new era of evasive logistics. The escalating tariffs, which have reached a cumulative rate of 145% on Chinese goods, are expected to continue to impact global trade, with some estimates suggesting an effective tariff rate of nearly 156%. The rapid pace of tariff increases and subsequent reversals has created uncertainty, prompting suppliers to re-evaluate their relationships and options.
17-04-2025
US President Donald Trump's aggressive tariff policies are harming "all US assets" and accelerating a shift away from the US dollar, according to Mark Dowding, chief investment officer of fixed income at RBC Bluebay Asset Management. Dowding warned that the trade war has triggered a "longer-term turning point" for the dollar's status as the global reserve currency and undermines Washington's policy credibility. He also predicted that China will reduce its purchases and holdings of US Treasuries in the future.
17-04-2025
China has responded to the US tariff hikes on goods by targeting US services and other areas, as it decries the "meaningless" tariff hikes. China has rolled out non-tariff restrictive measures, including widening export controls on rare-earth minerals, opening antitrust probes into American companies, and restricting US companies' access to the Chinese market. China has also targeted the US services sector, including travel, legal, consulting, and financial services, where the US has a significant surplus. China's measures include reducing imports of US films, warning citizens against traveling or studying in the US, and targeting Boeing by ordering Chinese airlines to halt purchases of aircraft-related equipment and parts from US companies. Analysts expect Beijing to continue deploying non-tariff policy tools to raise its leverage ahead of potential negotiations with the US.
17-04-2025
China is attempting to rally countries against the Trump administration's tariffs, with President Xi Jinping making diplomatic efforts to persuade other nations not to cave to US pressure. Xi has met with leaders in Vietnam and Malaysia, and Chinese officials have held talks with European and Japanese counterparts. However, these efforts have been met with wariness, as countries are hesitant to antagonize the US and risk retribution. Many nations, including the EU, Japan, and South Korea, have pushed back against China's attempts to form a united front, and some have expressed concerns about China's own trade practices. Vietnam, in particular, is being cautious not to tilt too far towards Beijing, as it seeks to maintain good relations with both China and the US. China's efforts are driven by a desire to protect its status as a global power and to prevent the US from isolating it through trade deals with other countries.
17-04-2025
South Korea is preparing for trade talks with the US and plans to use its thriving shipbuilding industry as a bargaining chip to mitigate the 25% tariff imposed by President Trump on South Korean exports. South Korea is the world's second-largest shipbuilder after China, and officials believe this can help Trump's goal of reviving America's maritime industry. The US wants to cooperate with South Korea in shipbuilding, and South Korean firms have already begun investing in the US shipbuilding industry. However, analysts question the depth of cooperation and Trump's commitment to reviving American shipbuilding, citing regulatory barriers and Trump's own import taxes that may hinder the industry's competitiveness.
17-04-2025
The European Union is drawing lessons from its recent clashes with China as it prepares to face off against the US under Donald Trump. The EU had to navigate Chinese pressure when voting on tariffs for Chinese electric vehicles, but ultimately passed the tariffs. The EU is now applying some of the tactics it used against China to its growing trade dispute with the US, testing its unity in the process.
