US-Iran Oman Nuclear Talks

Iran says it wants a “real and fair” nuclear deal with the U.S. ahead of weekend talks in Oman. Khamenei adviser Ali Shamkhani claimed Tehran has implementable proposals. The talks’ format is disputed: President Trump called them direct, while Iran’s foreign minister described indirect, mediated talks. Trump warned military action is possible if negotiations fail; Iran threatened to expel U.N. inspectors, drawing U.S. warnings of escalation. Iran maintains its program is peaceful, though officials have hinted at pursuing a weapon; U.S. intelligence says Iran hasn’t begun a weapons program but is positioning itself to do so if it chooses. U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff will meet Iranian FM Abbas Araghchi in Oman, which is mediating; Witkoff also met Russia’s Putin ahead of the talks.

The U.S. and Iran plan to begin indirect nuclear talks in Oman amid new U.S. sanctions and escalating rhetoric from President Trump, who warned Iran faces “great danger” if talks fail. While Trump billed them as direct, Tehran says they’ll start indirectly to establish a communication bridge after years without engagement. The talks revive efforts since Trump’s 2018 exit from the JCPOA, as the IAEA warns Iran is accelerating enrichment toward weapons-grade levels—claims Tehran denies, insisting its program is peaceful. The regional backdrop includes weakened Iran-aligned groups (Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis) and Israeli-U.S. pressure, with some analysts expecting Washington to demand Iran dismantle its entire nuclear program. Both sides aim to gauge intentions, but time pressure and calls in Israel and Washington for potential military action heighten the stakes.

A report from the Institute for Science and International Security warns that Iran’s nuclear threat has escalated to an “extreme” level ahead of planned U.S.-Iran talks. It cites shorter breakout timelines, enhanced nuclear capabilities, and growing internal support in Iran for building nuclear weapons, driven by regional conflicts and perceptions that Tehran is preparing to cross the threshold. President Trump said the U.S. will not allow Iran to obtain a nuclear weapon and signaled willingness to use military force, with Israel likely playing a key role. The report also notes Iran’s significant missile and drone arsenals, its support for Russia in Ukraine, and rising Iranian rhetoric, including threats against Trump. Questions persist over the existence and scope of a supposed Khamenei fatwa banning nuclear weapons.

The U.S. and Iran are set to hold nuclear talks in Oman, with Washington seeking direct negotiations and Tehran insisting on indirect, third-party mediation. Analysts say both sides are posturing for leverage: the U.S. wants to appear to have forced Iran to the table, while Iran avoids looking submissive, especially given Trump’s past actions, including the killing of Qassem Soleimani and a maximum-pressure sanctions campaign. Iran’s leverage stems from advanced uranium enrichment, missile progress, and ties to Russia and China. The U.S. retains significant pressure tools, including additional sanctions, UN snapback measures, and potential military options. Trump has warned time is limited and suggested Israel would lead any strike if talks fail. Experts argue that beyond nuclear constraints, a broader strategy targeting Iran’s regional networks and internal vulnerabilities is needed to curb the regime’s threat.

The U.S. and Iran are holding preliminary talks in Oman to test whether they can reopen formal negotiations on limiting Iran’s nuclear program, the first such engagement since Trump quit the 2015 deal. Goals are modest: agree on a negotiation framework and timeline, possibly via indirect contacts. Iran signals openness to reducing enrichment and allowing more monitoring but rejects dismantling its program; the U.S. has pushed for tougher limits. With the original deal’s key restrictions expiring in October and Israel threatening strikes, both sides face pressure to show progress. Trump seeks a deal to lower regional tensions without war, but Israeli demands for destroying sites and U.S. aims to curb missiles and proxies complicate prospects. A symbolic handshake could keep talks alive, but any agreement may mirror the 2015 terms, frustrating Israel and potentially falling short of Trump’s past demands, while Iran may use prolonged talks to fend off Israeli action and outlast UN snapback authority.

US and Iranian officials have begun high-stakes nuclear talks in Muscat, Oman—the most consequential in a decade—amid rising tensions and a two-month deadline. With US President Donald Trump threatening military action if no deal is reached and Europe urging diplomacy, the negotiations hinge on defining what’s on the table. Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff is central to setting the agenda, while Iran’s team, led by Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, must balance engagement with domestic pressure from Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei against negotiating under renewed US sanctions. Analysts warn failure to agree on parameters could trigger a dangerous escalatory cycle.

U.S. and Iranian officials held brief, face-to-face talks in Muscat, Oman, launching the first serious negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program in a decade. Trump’s Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi spoke briefly alongside Oman’s foreign minister after separate meetings with mediators lasting just over two hours. Further talks are planned next week. Iranian state media reported the encounter, while public reaction, reflected in comments, was largely critical of the U.S. approach, particularly the legacy of the Trump administration’s withdrawal from the previous nuclear deal.