Global Economic Shifts and Regulatory Changes

The article argues that China's trillion-dollar trade surplus is not a problem for the rest of the world, but rather for China itself. Despite the US imposing tariffs on China, Chinese manufacturers have adapted by expanding into alternative markets and finding ways to circumvent trade barriers. The article suggests that China's large trade surplus is a sign of its own economic imbalances rather than a threat to the global economy.

The article discusses how China's exports have surged despite the trade war with the US, resulting in a record-high trade surplus of $1 trillion in the first 11 months of 2025. China's exporters have diversified their markets, increasing exports to Europe, Southeast Asia, and Africa, which has offset the decline in shipments to the US. The article highlights that China's export success is driven by its comprehensive industrial supply chain, momentum generated by higher-tech sectors, and the determination of exporters. However, economists have raised concerns about the sustainability of this growth and the potential for further protectionist policies.

The South Australian Premier, Peter Malinauskas, has defended the country's world-first social media ban for children under 16, stating that it is aimed at protecting them from addictive algorithms. The ban, which has been adopted nationwide in Australia, covers 10 platforms including Instagram, Facebook, and TikTok. Malinauskas acknowledged that while social media has value, it is causing harm to children. He emphasized that the ban is not perfect but has led to parents having more conversations with their kids and children spending more time with others. Social psychologist Jonathan Haidt supported the ban, describing social media as 'the largest corporate destruction of human potential in human history.'

A prominent Chinese economist, Justin Lin Yifu, believes that China can maintain 5-6% annual GDP growth until 2035 and improve relations with the US by the mid-century mark. Lin, who is also the dean of the Institute of New Structural Economics at Peking University, cites China's unique advantages in technology, talent, and its economic system as reasons for its potential sustained growth. He predicts that China will achieve breakthroughs in US technology 'choke points' within five years and raise its per capita GDP to half that of the US by 2049, marking the realization of national rejuvenation. Lin's projections are based on China's capacity for 8% per capita GDP growth through 2035, driven by productivity gains and its 'latecomer' advantage. However, he also considers structural constraints like an ageing population, adjusting his growth predictions accordingly.