09-06-2025

Markets Weigh China Deflation, Trade Talks

Date: 09-06-2025
Sources: cnbc.com: 4 | scmp.com: 2
Image for cluster 4
Image Source:

Source: scmp.com

Image content: The image is a collage-style graphic for a piece titled “SCMP DeepDive.” It shows a suited man gesturing in the foreground, with scenes of a market and a container port in the background, suggesting topics of trade or the economy.

Summary

Global markets began the week cautiously optimistic as Asia and Europe edged higher while U.S. futures steadied near record levels, with investors focused on U.S.-China trade talks in London and pivotal U.S. inflation data ahead. China’s fourth straight month of consumer deflation and the steepest producer price drop since 2023 underscored weak domestic demand despite stimulus, even as exports remained positive overall but slumped sharply to the U.S. amid tariff frictions. Asian equities rose on hopes for easing tensions and policy support, European bourses eyed small gains on signs of incremental thaw—such as rare earth export approvals and resumed Boeing deliveries—and U.S. markets watched catalysts including Apple’s WWDC, AI scrutiny, and CPI/PPI prints. Economists stressed that a sustained China recovery hinges on reviving domestic consumption, while traders gauge whether global central banks, especially the Fed, will adjust policy amid mixed growth signals.

Key Points

  • China’s CPI fell 0.1% y/y and PPI 3.3% in May, signaling persistent deflation despite recent stimulus.
  • Chinese exports grew 4.8% overall but exports to the U.S. plunged 34.5%, reflecting ongoing tariff pressures.
  • Asian and European stocks advanced modestly on hopes for progress in U.S.-China talks and targeted policy support.
  • U.S. futures hovered near record highs ahead of key CPI/PPI data, Apple’s WWDC, and broader AI scrutiny.
  • Economists say China’s sustained recovery depends on stronger domestic demand, not just external trade.

Articles in this Cluster

Asia stock markets today: live updates for June 9 2025Stock Chart IconStock Chart Icon

Asian stocks rose Monday ahead of U.S.-China trade talks and after mixed Chinese data. China’s CPI fell 0.1% year over year in May and PPI dropped 3.3%, while exports rose 4.8% but missed expectations, with exports to the U.S. plunging 34.5% and imports down 3.4%. Mainland China’s CSI 300 gained 0.18%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 1.01% and the Hang Seng Tech surged around 2.7%. Japan’s Nikkei added 0.99% as GDP contraction was revised to an annualized −0.2%. South Korea’s Kospi jumped to an 11-month high, up about 1.7%, with broad-based gains. India’s Nifty 50 and Sensex edged higher; Australia was closed for a holiday. U.S. futures dipped after Friday’s Wall Street rally on stronger-than-expected May payrolls (139,000). Separately, President Trump urged the Fed to cut rates by a full percentage point.
Entities: Asian stocks, U.S.-China trade talks, China CPI, China PPI, Hang SengTone: analyticalSentiment: neutralIntent: inform

China consumer deflation deepens as demand stays weak despite stimulus

China’s consumer prices fell 0.1% year over year in May, marking a fourth straight month of deflation, while producer prices dropped 3.3%, the sharpest fall since July 2023. Despite recent stimulus—rate and reserve requirement cuts—domestic demand remains weak, with auto-sector price wars and declining property prices adding pressure. Core inflation rose to 0.6%, the highest since January. Policymakers signal more targeted measures may be needed. Trade tensions with the U.S. persist despite a preliminary tariff rollback, with renewed talks set in London as markets watch for further monetary easing and upcoming policy signals at the Lujiazui forum. Exports remain relatively firm, but economists say sustained recovery hinges on strengthening domestic demand.
Entities: China, consumer deflation, producer prices, stimulus, domestic demandTone: analyticalSentiment: negativeIntent: inform

European markets on Mon June 9: stock moves, Stoxx 600, FTSE 100, DAX

European stocks were set for a slightly higher open Monday, with futures pointing to small gains for the FTSE 100, DAX, CAC 40, and FTSE MIB. Markets are focused on U.S.-China trade talks taking place in London, as the U.S. delegation meets Chinese officials amid signs of easing tensions, including China’s temporary approvals for rare earth exports and resumed Boeing jet deliveries. Asian markets rose overnight on the trade outlook and Chinese data, while U.S. futures were mostly flat with the S&P 500 near record highs. Key U.S. inflation data (CPI Wednesday, PPI Friday) looms later in the week. Nvidia’s Jensen Huang headlines London Tech Week; no major European earnings or data are due Monday.
Entities: Stoxx 600, FTSE 100, DAX, U.S.-China trade talks, LondonTone: analyticalSentiment: neutralIntent: inform

Stock market today: Live updatesStock Chart IconStock Chart Icon

U.S. stock futures were little changed Sunday as the S&P 500 hovered near record highs after a second straight winning week, buoyed by strength in cyclicals despite softer data. Key catalysts ahead include U.S.-China trade talks in London, Apple’s WWDC amid its 2025 stock slump and AI scrutiny, and crucial inflation readings with CPI Wednesday, PPI Friday, plus University of Michigan sentiment. No changes were made to S&P 500 constituents in the June rebalance, tempering a rally in Robinhood after inclusion speculation. Communication services led last week’s gains, while consumer staples lagged; small caps advanced with the Russell 2000 up 3.19%.
Entities: S&P 500, U.S. stock futures, U.S.-China trade talks, Apple WWDC, AI scrutinyTone: analyticalSentiment: neutralIntent: inform

China’s consumer prices fall for fourth month in May amid weak demand, trade tensions | South China Morning Post

China’s consumer prices fell 0.1% year on year in May, the fourth consecutive monthly decline, and were down 0.2% from April, signaling ongoing deflationary pressure amid weak domestic demand. Factory-gate prices (PPI) dropped 3.3%. Lower energy prices contributed to the monthly decline, while trade tensions with the US and inventory overhangs continue to weigh on manufacturers. Authorities note some improvement in supply-demand dynamics and efforts to boost consumption, as new US-China trade talks begin in London.
Entities: China, consumer prices (CPI), producer prices (PPI), deflationary pressure, US-China trade tensionsTone: analyticalSentiment: negativeIntent: inform

US tariffs hit China’s exports in May, but June seen as ‘a better month’ | South China Morning Post

China’s export growth slowed to 4.8% year on year in May (US$316.1 billion), down from 8.1% in April and below expectations, as US orders fell ahead of a newly agreed 90-day tariff truce. Exports to the US plunged 34.5%, deeper than April’s 21% drop, reflecting ongoing trade-war effects. Economists expect June to be better due to the truce and tariff removals announced May 12, but caution that manufacturing and trade remain under pressure amid lingering uncertainty over US tariffs.
Entities: China, United States, US tariffs, exports, trade warTone: analyticalSentiment: negativeIntent: inform