05-08-2025

Tariff Turmoil Tests Global Markets

Date: 05-08-2025
Sources: cnbc.com: 1 | economist.com: 3 | npr.org: 1 | nytimes.com: 2 | scmp.com: 2
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Source: economist.com

Summary

A wave of new and threatened U.S. tariffs under President Trump is reverberating across global markets, policy, and industry. European equities rose as investors focused on resilient earnings from firms like BP, Infineon, and Diageo, even as tariff risks loomed and Switzerland rushed to negotiate after being blindsided by a 39% levy. Analysts highlight that heightened U.S. protectionism—now among the highest effective tariff rates globally—is raising consumer prices, disrupting trade flows, and dampening investment sentiment, while prompting partners to seek exemptions or strike costly side deals, as seen with Malaysia’s tariff relief tied to massive purchase commitments. Sectors reliant on European imports, such as olive oil, face immediate price pressures and supply shifts, while some companies diversify markets to mitigate risk. Despite occasional policy rollbacks, persistent tariff threats keep uncertainty elevated, shaping corporate strategies, trade diplomacy, and macroeconomic expectations worldwide.

Key Points

  • European stocks gained on strong earnings despite tariff overhang; Switzerland scrambles after surprise 39% U.S. tariff threat.
  • U.S. effective tariff rate has surged, pressuring consumers, trade flows, and investment confidence globally.
  • Malaysia secured lower U.S. tariffs but at a high cost via large-scale purchase commitments, risking fiscal strain.
  • Olive oil imports exemplify sector pain: higher U.S. prices, limited domestic substitution, and supplier diversification.
  • Persistent tariff rhetoric from Trump sustains uncertainty even after partial rollbacks, influencing policy and markets.

Articles in this Cluster

European markets on Aug 5: Stoxx 600, FTSE, DAX, CAC, BP earningsStock Chart IconStock Chart IconStock Chart Icon

European stocks rose as investors looked past tariff fears and focused on earnings. Switzerland’s SMI rebounded after leaders flew to the U.S. to negotiate over a threatened 39% tariff, boosting hopes of a deal. The Stoxx 600 gained ~0.46%, DAX ~0.78%. Earnings highlights: BP beat expectations with $2.35 billion in underlying profit, citing strong upstream performance and new project startups; shares climbed. Diageo guided for flat 2026 sales and raised its expected annual tariff hit to $200 million but lifted its cost-savings target to $625 million, sending shares higher. Infineon rose about 5% after an EPS beat; the CFO said tariff impacts appear less severe than feared and noted euro strength weighed on reported growth. Hugo Boss slightly beat sales estimates despite China weakness and maintained full-year guidance. Adecco and Eutelsat reported better-than-expected results, while Fresenius Medical Care missed on operating income but kept its outlook. Overall market sentiment was positive across major European bourses.
Entities: Stoxx 600, FTSE, DAX, SMI, BPTone: analyticalSentiment: positiveIntent: inform

America’s tariff avalanche catches Switzerland unawares

Donald Trump announced a 39% tariff on Swiss exports to the U.S., blindsiding Switzerland just after its August 1st national celebrations. The Swiss government quickly consulted businesses and convened a crisis meeting on August 4th, pledging to propose a more attractive offer to Washington. The unusually steep tariff rate is reportedly tied to exports involving a metal favored by Trump. The move underscores Switzerland’s vulnerability despite its independent stance and highlights the escalating, unilateral U.S. trade measures affecting European economies.
Entities: Donald Trump, Switzerland, U.S. tariffs, Swiss government, WashingtonTone: urgentSentiment: negativeIntent: inform

Finance & economics | Latest news and analysis from The Economist

The Economist’s Finance & economics section covers global trends and policy shifts: the rapid spread of “buy now, pay later”; the renewed prominence and costs of tariffs under Trump for the U.S., allies, and consumers; hidden food-trade corruption linked to Iran; the EU’s cautious approach in a limited trade deal with America; Japan’s resurgence in private equity; structural reasons for banking’s pullback; how a hawkish tilt from Jerome Powell reset rate-cut expectations; a new retail-trading wave driven by apps and novel instruments; Europe’s avoidance of a full-blown tariff escalation with the U.S.; how foreign firms are currently absorbing tariff pain; lessons economics offers to foreign policy; and the intense contest within China to become the EV industry’s “Detroit.”
Entities: The Economist, buy now, pay later, tariffs, Donald Trump, European UnionTone: analyticalSentiment: neutralIntent: inform

Trump will not let the world move on from tariffs

The article argues that despite initially scaling back his sweeping “Liberation Day” tariff plan after markets recoiled, President Trump continues to push tariffs to the forefront of policy, keeping uncertainty alive for the U.S. and global economy. Six charts reportedly show that even reduced, broad-based tariffs have harmed American consumers through higher prices, disrupted trade flows with partners, and dented financial market confidence, while offering little strategic gain. Although markets briefly stabilized after the rollback to 10% tariffs for most countries (and later China), the persistence of tariff threats prevents a full recovery in investment and trade planning, undercutting growth and signaling that the administration won’t let the world move past tariff-driven disruption.
Entities: President Donald Trump, tariffs, U.S. economy, global economy, financial marketsTone: analyticalSentiment: negativeIntent: critique

Trump's tariffs are pressing olive oil producers : NPR

Americans import 95% of their olive oil, mostly from Spain and Italy, making the U.S. highly dependent on European producers. New U.S. tariffs under President Trump—expected to land around 15% after higher threats—are squeezing European suppliers already hit by heat and poor harvests. Small producers like Tuscany’s Olio Piro, which had sold exclusively to the U.S., are accelerating expansion to other markets (Canada, Japan, Germany) to reduce risk. The tariffs are unlikely to boost U.S. production meaningfully, as domestic output (mainly California) covers only about 5% of demand and can’t scale quickly. Analysts expect higher prices for U.S. consumers, prompting some to trade down to cheaper oils, though quality and health experts note olive oil remains preferable. European giants like Deoleo also warn U.S. prices will rise, while the EU seeks exemptions for some foods.
Entities: United States, European Union, Spain, Italy, CaliforniaTone: analyticalSentiment: neutralIntent: inform

A Public School Enrollment Crisis, and a Nuclear Reactor on the Moon - The New York Times

The episode highlights a sharp decline in U.S. public school enrollment since 2019 as vouchers, charters, and homeschooling grow, prompting districts to market themselves to families. It also covers Trump administration economic pressure on trading partners via tariff threats, a plan to reinstall a Confederate statue in Washington, progress toward placing a nuclear reactor on the Moon, a major $875 million settlement by chemical makers with New Jersey over “forever chemicals,” and the death of James Leprino, the cheese innovator who transformed pizza production.
Entities: U.S. public school enrollment, school vouchers, charter schools, homeschooling, Trump administrationTone: analyticalSentiment: neutralIntent: inform

Trump Administration: Latest News and Live Updates - The New York Times

President Trump claimed on CNBC that a new EU trade deal includes $600 billion in European investment he can direct as he chooses, though details remain unclear. He also said Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is not a candidate for the next Federal Reserve chair, continuing his criticism of current Chair Jerome Powell. The White House plans an executive order creating a task force to coordinate federal security and logistics for the 2028 Los Angeles Olympics, designated a National Special Security Event, amid strained relations with local officials over immigration enforcement and budget pressures from recent wildfires. Separately, the administration will restore and reinstall in Washington the statue of Confederate general and Freemason leader Albert Pike, toppled during 2020 protests, as part of a broader push to reinstate Confederate-related symbols and monuments. The move revives long-standing controversy over Pike’s Confederate role and alleged postwar ties to the Ku Klux Klan.
Entities: Donald Trump, European Union, Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, Scott BessentTone: analyticalSentiment: negativeIntent: inform

As US’ effective tariff rate rises to 17%, analysts say China has an opportunity | South China Morning Post

Fitch Ratings says the U.S. effective tariff rate has surged to 17% from about 2% after late-July tariff actions, making it one of the world’s most protected markets. China faces the steepest burden among major partners, with its rate jumping to 41.4% from 10.7%. Analysts in China argue the trend underscores the need for trade diversification, technological self-reliance, and greater engagement in global governance. While heightened frictions or a full tariff war are possible under Trump’s intensified “America First” agenda, some see an opportunity for China amid potential strains in the U.S. alliance system.
Entities: United States, China, Fitch Ratings, tariffs, America First agendaTone: analyticalSentiment: neutralIntent: analyze

Malaysia’s US tariff deal comes with US$240 billion price tag | South China Morning Post

Malaysia secured a lower 19% U.S. tariff compared with higher levies on other countries, but its deal carries an estimated US$240 billion obligation to buy U.S. goods, far exceeding its trade deficit with the U.S. Commitments include up to US$150 billion over five years in high-tech purchases, Malaysia Airlines’ US$19 billion order for up to 60 Boeing jets, and Petronas’ US$3.4 billion in annual U.S. LNG buys. Analysts warn these unfunded commitments could strain public finances and ultimately leave Malaysia worse off despite the tariff relief.
Entities: Malaysia, United States, US$240 billion purchase commitments, 19% U.S. tariff, Malaysia AirlinesTone: analyticalSentiment: negativeIntent: warn