Articles in this Cluster
04-08-2025
China is rejecting U.S. demands to stop buying oil from Russia and Iran, framing energy purchases as a sovereignty issue despite ongoing trade talks. Washington has threatened tariffs up to 100% to curb revenue for Moscow and Tehran, while evidence shows China uses a “dark fleet” to evade Iran sanctions. Analysts doubt the U.S. will fully enforce such tariffs, noting Beijing’s leverage and consistent support for Russia, as well as China’s reliance on discounted Russian and Iranian crude—over 1 million barrels per day from Iran alone. The standoff persists amid broader U.S. moves to penalize countries like India for Russian oil purchases and a bipartisan push in Congress for sweeping sanctions on buyers of Russian energy.
04-08-2025
Harvard economist Carmen Reinhart warns U.S. recession risks are above average due to heightened policy and geopolitical uncertainty, volatile markets, and higher interest rates. She says shifts away from globalization—especially stricter immigration policies and efforts to reshore manufacturing—could slow population and economic growth, and much lost manufacturing is unlikely to return. Reinhart urges greater global cooperation and advises investors and workers to hedge and focus on medium- to long-term strategies, while highlighting concerns about rising national debt.
04-08-2025
Pakistan’s army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, has leveraged a warming relationship with Donald Trump to bolster his standing abroad and consolidate power at home. After years of criticism over political meddling and amid Pakistan’s economic and security woes, Munir secured a high-profile White House lunch in June following a brief Indo-Pakistani conflict. In July, Trump escalated pressure on India—calling it a “dead economy” and slapping 25% tariffs—while touting a new trade deal with Pakistan, signaling a geopolitical tilt toward Islamabad. The overtures boost Munir’s legitimacy and Pakistan’s leverage, even as he tightens control domestically, but risk deepening regional tensions and exposing Pakistan to volatility tied to U.S. political shifts.
04-08-2025
South-East Asia is positioning itself as a pivotal battleground in the US–China tech rivalry, leveraging its role as an alternative hub for AI and advanced tech amid rising export controls and fragmentation. Singapore’s Prime Minister Lawrence Wong warned Beijing that restrictions spur diversification, which is benefiting the region as both superpowers court Southeast Asian markets, talent, and infrastructure. Countries like Singapore, Vietnam, Malaysia, and Indonesia are attracting data centers, chip packaging, cloud services, and AI investments, balancing ties with both Washington and Beijing while capitalizing on supply-chain reconfiguration. The region’s neutrality, connectivity, and growing digital economies make it uniquely appealing to both sides, giving Southeast Asia increased strategic and economic leverage in the global AI race.
04-08-2025
Fox News reports that Donald Trump aims to fracture the growing partnership between Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping, potentially via a “reverse Kissinger” strategy that courts Russia away from China. Former Trump NSC official Fred Fleitz argues the alliance is brittle due to underlying distrust and territorial tensions, and suggests pressing China to stop buying Russian oil (with tariff threats) while highlighting to Moscow that Beijing’s long-term goals undermine Russian interests. Despite China’s public backing of Russia in the Ukraine war and reports of deepening ties, leaks and media reports indicate Chinese espionage and strategic opportunism toward Russia. Fleitz contends sustained diplomacy with Putin and emphasizing China’s risks to Russia could eventually split the partnership, though it will be difficult and slow.
04-08-2025
The U.S. has imposed sweeping new 40% tariffs on goods routed through third countries to curb transshipment of Chinese products, intensifying pressure on Southeast Asian economies built around Chinese investment and supply chains. Malaysia’s solar sector offers a cautionary tale: after a decade of booming, China-led factory investment, U.S. tariffs under Biden of up to 250% on Malaysia-made solar equipment gutted the industry, leaving only Longi partially operating and warehouses full of panels that can’t be exported. Malaysia now aims to pivot from being a low-cost production hub to building domestic demand and technology capability—pushing to use stranded solar inventory at home, expand clean energy to 50% of consumption in five years, and rebuild local supply chains with Chinese know-how while courting U.S. tech investment. But it remains squeezed between U.S. trade enforcement and reliance on cheap Chinese components, highlighting the broader regional challenge of navigating the U.S.-China trade war without choosing sides.
04-08-2025
Panama’s president has proposed converting operations of two key Panama Canal ports into a public-private partnership if a Supreme Court challenge to CK Hutchison’s concession succeeds, potentially dealing major financial and operational blows to the Hong Kong conglomerate. The comptroller general is contesting the 25-year concession renewal as unconstitutional, placing CK Hutchison’s control under legal and political pressure amid heightened US-China geopolitical tensions. The move follows CK Hutchison’s plan to sell global port assets to a BlackRock-led consortium that would include a major mainland Chinese investor, further intensifying scrutiny and risk around the deal.
04-08-2025
A Shanghai court sentenced 14 ex-Huawei employees—now at start-up Zunpai Communication Technology—to up to six years in prison and financial penalties for stealing semiconductor-related trade secrets from Huawei’s HiSilicon unit. The case, involving Wi-Fi chip development and led by former HiSilicon researcher Zhang Kun, underscores IP theft concerns in China’s chip industry. Huawei had previously sought to freeze 95 million yuan in Zunpai assets. The court’s full verdict hasn’t been published, and it’s unclear if appeals will follow.
04-08-2025
China is accelerating efforts to localize its aviation supply chain beyond the headline C919 jet, advancing key components to reduce foreign dependence. A rare update on the domestically developed CJ-1000A engine indicates it is progressing on schedule and targets performance comparable to the LEAP-1C currently used on the C919, marking a pivotal step toward engine self-sufficiency. Broader moves across systems and materials—such as approvals for critical consumables like hydraulic fluids—underscore Beijing’s push to close technology gaps and build an end-to-end, homegrown ecosystem spanning design, propulsion, and aircraft systems, strengthening its position across the civil aviation value chain.
04-08-2025
The renewed US-China trade war has spurred investment into USA Rare Earth, an American firm aiming to rebuild the domestic rare earth magnet supply chain. Previously struggling to raise capital due to China’s cost and capacity dominance, the company saw interest surge after President Trump’s return, new US tariffs, and China’s export controls on key rare earth elements exposed US supply vulnerabilities. CEO Joshua Ballard says the changed environment is enabling the company to accelerate plans and position itself as a major player as US manufacturers fear magnet shortages.
04-08-2025
Jeffrey Sachs warns that US saber-rattling toward China risks creating a self-fulfilling prophecy of conflict, arguing Washington learned it cannot impose its will on Beijing and that both sides hold leverage (e.g., rare earths) that constrains escalation. He expects ongoing, limited trade frictions rather than a stable truce, with neither side dominating and both incentivized to cooperate due to mutual gains. Sachs advises China to de-emphasize the US and Europe as export growth markets, focusing instead on emerging regions like Africa, Southeast and South Asia, West and Central Asia, and Latin America. He characterizes US behavior as the primary driver of the trade war, notes Trump’s unpredictability and short attention span make agreements fragile, and underscores China’s pivotal role in the global zero-carbon energy transition, especially outside Western markets.
04-08-2025
SCMP’s daily highlights feature: signals that China’s top leadership has begun its annual Beidaihe summer retreat; a surge of US investment into domestic rare earth production as Washington seeks to reduce dependence on China; and economist Jeffrey Sachs arguing Western hegemony is over, calling US saber-rattling “delusional” and emphasizing China’s pivotal role in the global transition to zero-carbon energy, particularly beyond the US and Europe.
